Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations
Provincial-Level Projection of the Current Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak
Year 7 Results (Obsolete)
In the past year (2009/2010), the beetle projections have been updated based on the results of the 2009 Provincial Aerial Overview of Forest Health. This work represents "updates" to the efforts of Year 6. The current projection results do not project the forest management response to the current outbreak.
There were problems with the 2008 Aerial Overview of Forest Health that have impacted the current infestation projection and the observed infestation estimates for both the years 2008 and 2009. Please consult the Infestation Projection report available below to obtain further information regarding the uncertainty and problems with the current infestation projection.
We are reasonably confident in the model's observed and projected infestation estimates at the provincial and district scale, but the specific progression of the outbreak at finer scales, such as a "watershed" or a "pixel", is most likely wrong because theses finer scales exceed the resolution of the model.
The projection provided is one instance of the output from a stochastic model (BCMPB.v7). It is a projection of what might happen rather than a prediction of what will happen.
- Infestation Projection: updated to include the 2009 Provincial Aerial Overview of Forest Health
A Microsoft Excel workbook is available depicting the observed and projected pine loss due to the current mountain pine beetle infestation. The workbook contains tables and charts for each of the forest management units where pine constitutes greater than 10% of the forest volume harvested. However, this spreadsheet is only available upon request due to the problems with the 2008 Aerial Overview of Forest Health and the resulting impacts on the provincial projection (please consult the Infestation Projection report available above to obtain further information regarding the uncertainty and problems with the current infestation projection).
Please contact Adrian Walton if you would like to receive a copy of this spreadsheet.
The following series of cartographic maps represents the state of the outbreak as seen in 2009, and as projected for 3 different years in the future. They are PDF files approximately 4 megabytes in size.
- Observed percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) in 2009
- Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2010
- Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2014
- Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2018
Ministry contact: Adrian Walton.