Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations

Provincial-Level Projection of the Current Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak

Year 6 Results (Obsolete)

In the past year (2008/2009), the beetle projection portion of the model has been slightly altered and projections updated based on the results of the 2008 Provincial Aerial Overview of Forest Health.  This work represents "updates" to the efforts of Year 5.  The current projection results do not project the forest management response to the current outbreak.

Reports

PLEASE NOTE that there were problems with the 2008 Aerial Overview of Forest Health that have impacted the current infestation projection.  Please consult the Infestation Projection report available below to obtain further information regarding the uncertainty and problems with the current infestation projection.

Spreadsheets

  • A Microsoft Excel workbook is available depicting the observed and projected pine loss due to the current mountain pine beetle infestation.  The workbook contains tables and charts for each of the forest management units where pine constitutes greater than 10% of the forest volume harvested.  However, this spreadsheet is only available upon request due to the problems with the 2008 Aerial Overview of Forest Health and the resulting impacts on the provincial projection (please consult the Infestation Projection report available above to obtain further information regarding the uncertainty and problems with the current infestation projection).

    Please contact Adrian Walton if you would like to receive a copy of this spreadsheet.

Cartographic Maps

The following series of cartographic maps represents the state of the outbreak as seen in 2008, and as projected for 3 different years in the future.  They are PDF files approximately 2 megabytes in size.

  • Observed percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) in 2008
  • Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2009
  • Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2013
  • Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2017

Ministry contact: Adrian Walton.