Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations

Provincial-Level Projection of the Current Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak

Year 11 Results (Obsolete)

In the past year (2013/2014), the beetle projections have been updated based on the results of the 2013 Provincial Aerial Overview of Forest Health.  This work represents an "update" to the efforts of Year 10.  The current projection results do not project the forest or beetle management response to the current outbreak.

IMPORTANT NOTES:

  • In areas of the province with missing or inconsistently gathered aerial overview survey mapping, the aerial overview survey mapping has been replaced with infestation severity estimates projected by BCMPB. 

  • We are reasonably confident in the model's observed and projected infestation estimates at the provincial and district scale, but the specific progression of the outbreak at finer scales, such as a "watershed" or a "pixel", is most likely wrong because theses finer scales exceed the resolution of the model.

  • The projection provided is one instance of the output from a stochastic model (BCMPB.v11).  It is a projection of what might happen rather than a prediction of what will happen.

Spreadsheets

  • Summary of Kills A Microsoft Excel workbook depicting the observed and projected pine loss due to the current mountain pine beetle infestation.  The workbook contains tables and charts for each of the Timber Supply Areas.  Tree Fame Licences results have been combined together.  The results do not project the forest management response to the current outbreak.

Cartographic Maps

The following series of cartographic maps represents the state of the outbreak as seen in 2013, and as projected for 3 different years in the future.  They are PDF files approximately 4 megabytes in size.

  • Observed percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) in 2013
  • Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2014
  • Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2019
  • Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2024

GIS Maps

Geographic Information System (GIS) maps are available on the following site:

http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/ftp/hre/external/!publish/web/BCMPB/Year11

The site contains a number of zip files, each of which contain a number of ArcGIS ASCII format grids and a text file with metadata.  Please refer to the 'readme.txt' and the metadata before using any of the provided data.

Ministry contact: Adrian Walton.