Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations
Provincial-Level Projection of the Current Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak
Year 8 Results (Obsolete)
In the past year (2010/2011), the beetle projections have been updated based on the results of the 2010 Provincial Aerial Overview of Forest Health. This work represents an "update" to the efforts of Year 7. The current projection results do not project the forest or beetle management response to the current outbreak.
In an effort to compensate for missing or inconsistently gather aerial overview survey mapping, the data preparation process was altered this year. The decision was made to replace the aerial overview survey mapping with infestation severity estimates projected by BCMPB in those areas of the province with missing or inconsistently gathered aerial overview survey mapping.
We are reasonably confident in the model's observed and projected infestation estimates at the provincial and district scale, but the specific progression of the outbreak at finer scales, such as a "watershed" or a "pixel", is most likely wrong because theses finer scales exceed the resolution of the model.
The projection provided is one instance of the output from a stochastic model (BCMPB.v8). It is a projection of what might happen rather than a prediction of what will happen.
- Infestation Projection: updated to include the 2010 Provincial Aerial Overview of Forest Health
- Summary of Kills A Microsoft Excel workbook depicting the observed and projected pine loss due to the current mountain pine beetle infestation. The workbook contains tables and charts for each of the Timber Supply Areas. Tree Fame Licences results have been combined together. The results do not project the forest management response to the current outbreak.
The following series of cartographic maps represents the state of the outbreak as seen in 2009, and as projected for 3 different years in the future. They are PDF files approximately 4 megabytes in size.
- Observed percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) in 2010
- Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2011
- Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2016
- Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2021
Ministry contact: Adrian Walton.