Forest Investment Account

Abstract of FII Project R04-072

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Improved Numerical Prediction of Fire Weather by Assimilation of MoF surface Weather Observations

Author(s): Stull, Roland (University of British Columbia)
Subject: Climate, Earth Sciences, Fire, Forestry, Geology, Landscape ecology, Socio-economics, Technology/GIS/Modeling/Remote Sensing
Series: Forest Investment Account (FIA) - Forest Science Program


Forest-fire spread is controlled by mountain- and valley-scale winds in BC, but these winds are not resolved in the present-day coarse-resolution weather analyses. When these analyses are used as a starting point for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, the resulting forecasts are inaccurate. To remedy this problem, we will create a technique to utilize the 150-200 surface weather stations deployed by the BC Ministry of Forests (MoF), along with 400 additional stations deployed by other agencies, to make new daily analyses. These will be used to initialize the high-resolution NWP models that are run daily at UBC. The skill of this approach will be measured by verifying the resulting daily forecasts against the corresponding observations, and comparing against forecasts that did not incorporate this data. Also, the daily forecasts will be disseminated on the web for realtime use and evaluation by MoF fire weather forecasters

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or contact Roland Stull, University of British Columbia (

Updated September 08, 2005 

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