Forest Investment Account

Abstract of FIA Project Y051365

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Development of analytic and decision models for assessing grizzly bear needs from forest management objectives

Author(s): Hovey, Fred W.
Imprint: B.C. : BC Ministry of Forests, 2005
Subject: Forest Investment Account (FIA), Grizzly Bear, British Columbia
Series: Forest Investment Account (FIA) - Forest Science Program


We summarize our progress and activities to date on our multi-year Forest Science Program research project. Our objectives include the development of empirical models that relate the probability of grizzly bear mortality to a suite of landscape level explanatory variables, merging these empirical models with comprehensive, explicit and widely applicable habitat models structured as Bayesian Belief Networks, and integration of these models with dynamic landscape models. The primary focus for the first year has centered on development of spatial data sources to resolve issues related to our incorporation of telemetry data on grizzly bear habitat use and mortality from two study areas that span the international boundary with the US, and development of the models themselves. Significant differences in the nature of available landscape data exist between these two study areas; however, the strength of the data for our purposes also relies on significant differences in the levels of human impacts between the study areas. Our proposed decision-analysis framework, following upon similar approaches developed elsewhere within British Columbia, will support adaptive management oriented approaches to managing timber resources and habitat for grizzly bears in a sustainable fashion. The strengths of this approach lie in the use of intuitive modelling tools to develop explicit and comprehensive habitat supply models, and development of these models in workshops that engage stakeholders in the process. Through the application of rule-based landscape simulation models that spatially and temporally represent the impacts of alternative management policies, and the integration of these simulation models with the habitat supply models and timber volume curves, a simultaneous evaluation of both timber and habitat supply can be achieved. This represents a significant improvement in current planning processes for sustainable resource management which currently relies on timber supply analyses and course filter objectives for wildlife with few guidelines for monitoring and little corroborative evidence of effectiveness.

For further information, please contact Fred Hovey, BC Ministry of Forests - Research Branch (

Updated September 08, 2005 

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