Forest Investment Account (FIA) - Forest Science Program
FIA Project Y113120

    Future vegetation structure and vertebrate distributions based on changes in moisture balance and temperature.
 
Project lead: Fred Bunnell (University of British Columbia)
Contributing Authors: Bunnell, Fred L.; Kremsater, Laurie L.; Moy, Arnold; Wells, Ralph W.; Breault, Andre; Harrison, Bruce; Northcote, Tom
Subject: Forest Investment Account (FIA), British Columbia
Series: Forest Investment Account (FIA) - Forest Science Program
Description:
Climate change will have profound effects on the flora and fauna of British Columbia (Hebda 1997; Bunnell et al. 2005; Hamann and Wang 2006, Austin et al. 2008). This project anticipates those effects and describes them well enough that forestry and other land uses can respond and potentially mitigate and adapt to them. It builds on existing work (e.g., www.pacificclimate.org/impacts/rbcmuseum/) by improving our ability to project both vegetation and vertebrate response to changes in climate and by describing management responses most likely to reduce impacts. The project addresses two major forest management issues: 1) how are the broad patterns of community structure likely to change and how should silvicultural planning and practice respond, and 2) how is the capacity of the environment to sustain biodiversity likely to change and how should management practices respond. This latter issue is of direct interest to First Nations and the Province of B.C. This proposal covers Year 3 of a 3 year project. Year 1 emphasized acquiring, compiling and analyzing data sets. Year 3 develops, evaluates and refines models.

This project improves the projection of climate change impacts for BC by incorporating influences of evapotranspiration and moisture stress more effectively through collaboration with D. Spittlehouse (F090115: Improving access to high spatial-resolution climate data for climate change studies). Trevor Murdock (Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium =PCIC) is a partner in both this proposal and F090115 thus consolidating linkages into existing models. The proposed work calibrates biodiversity attributes such as vegetation structure, distribution of modern wetlands and vertebrate species to moisture balance values and other climatic parameters. The patterns are then projected into the future using climate model data. Plant community structure (physiognomy) rather than composition is a key focus, because structure is well linked to climate (Stephenson 1990) and vertebrate distribution (Bunnell et al. 1999). Moreover, physiognomy as reflected in BEC variant structure and composition is a useful predictor of vertebrate presence and absence (Bunnell et al. 2008). Greater confidence can be developed around changes in vegetation form (i.e. proportion of deciduous to coniferous species, coniferous vs deciduous dominants etc) than for each of the many species comprising the vegetation.

To more accurately predict vegetation responses we will project a moisture balance model (currently Summer Heat Moisture index, but in future likely Spitllehouse’s modification of Hargreaves & Samani 1982 and other climate parameters) to create maps with particular focus on intensity and length of the summer dry season. Moisture balance data will be related to vegetation (eco-plot) data available from Ministry of Forests, including, for selected regions, wetland types (see Mackenzie and Moran 2004) plus data documenting presence/absence of bird species collected within Y061014 to Y083014 and previous NSERC support to Bunnell. Using data of future climatic conditions from climate models available through PCIC, a range of future vegetation structure and wetland distribution patterns will be developed, and using GIS, displayed on maps.
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By integrating of the projected climate changes, vegetation and vertebrates we examine two broadly related issues: 1) simple responses to landform at local scales, and 2) responses to vegetative structure more broadly. Two broad geometric responses are evident locally. The first results from the broadly conical shape of mountains: a linear shift in temperature boundary reduces the amount of alpine habitat proportional to the square of the linear change (Hebda 1997). Little can be done to reduce this impact, though its consequences can be broadly described. The second geometric impact results from the convex shape of ponds, lakes and wetlands. Again, a linear increase in evaporation reduces the area of suitable habitat at a rate more rapid than linear. That is particularly true of species reliant on emergent plants that have a narrow rooting zone. In this case, some mitigation may be possible by water management targeted to areas where effects are anticipated to be most profound or management efforts most likely to succeed.

Broad changes in vegetation structure have complex interactions with migratory species particularly birds. Birds, however, constitute the richest group of vertebrates and must be considered. The general model of bird response proposed by Bunnell et al. (2005) uses migratory categories as its major feature, and predicted the direction of response accurately in about 70% of cases for the few species that could then be tested. We will refine that model to allow prediction of changes in arrival and departure dates, changes in numbers over-wintering, range expansion, shifts in relative density within the province, and dates of clutch initiation.

The current workplan differs from the original proposal in two ways that strengthen the work. First, we have found 33 lakes and wetlands for which depths were measured three times a year over 11 years. That will allow us to assess the relative contributions of different climate variables to resultant water depth in the wetland, and moisture stress more generally. Second, we have developed a methodology that allows us to derive empirical climate envelopes for bird species using known range distributions and historical climate data from the 1960s to 1990s. These empirically derived envelopes provide greater confidence when projecting climate influences on future distributions. We are attempting to extend the approach to key plant species. This second change was reported in Year 2.
Related projects:  FSP_Y091120FSP_Y102120

    Deliverables:

Final year end report (0.1Mb)
Vulnerability of wetlands in the Central Interior Ecoprovince to climate change (1.0Mb)
Evaluating the drying index for the Southern Interior Ecoprovince (0.2Mb)
Final version of "Vulnerability of wetlands to climate change in the Southern Interior Ecoprovince: a preliminary assessment" (1.1Mb)

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Updated May 19, 2011 

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