Forest Investment Account (FIA) - Forest Science Program
FIA Project M086025

    A Strategic Analysis Framework for Managing Forests under the Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak
Project lead: Morgan, Don (BC Ministry of Forests and Range)
Contributing Authors: Morgan, Don; Fall, S. Andrew; McCann, Robert K.
Subject: Forest Investment Account (FIA), British Columbia
Series: Forest Investment Account (FIA) - Forest Science Program
Objectives of landscape-level planning are to promote sustainability and stewardship of multiple resource values with an emphasis on consistent fibre flow, but events such as mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, MPB) outbreaks create uncertainty that hampers meeting those objectives (Sutherland et al. 2004). Events as large as the current MPB outbreak can cause forests to lose some resilience to absorb further perturbation and reduce their capacity to provide key ecological services, such as wildlife habitat, mid-to long-term timber supply, and jobs (MOFR 2005). Innovative and forward-looking approaches that incorporate sources of uncertainty are needed to manage landscapes for both timber and non-timber values. In the mid-1970s, the East Kootenays experienced a MPB outbreak that can be used to provide a solid foundation for examining the potential consequences of the current epidemic. The broad goal of our project is to exploit this information to guide MPB-related decisions through a strategic analysis that compares the consequences of historic responses to alternative management approaches. This project will generate two major products: 1) an analysis framework to support decision makers ability to assess timber and non-timber values, trade-offs, and interactions, with explicit accounting for uncertainty; and 2) a report that evaluates current policy, presents alternative options, and provides guidance to inform MPB-related decisions. Our project directly addresses Theme 5 of the MPB Timber Growth and Value Program by modelling the effects of MPB attacks under different forest management strategies. We will also consider stochastic factors such as climate change that may affect MPB outbreaks, fire, land-use, and forest development. Literature Cited MOFR. 2005. Ministry of Forests and Range mountain pine beetle stewardship research strategy. BC Ministry of Forests and Range, Research Branch, Victoria, BC 18 pp. Sutherland, G. D., M. Eng, and S. A. Fall. 2004. Effects of uncertainties about stand-replacing natural disturbances on forest-management projections. BC J. Ecosyst. Manage. 4(2): 1-18.


Executive summary (0.2Mb)
Cranbrook landscape model, version 2 (1.0Mb)

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Updated August 16, 2010 

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