Introduction

The Working Group's impact assessment is based on an analysis of six of the province's timber supply areas (TSAs) – Strathcona, Sunshine Coast, Quesnel, Okanagan, Lakes and Cranbrook. The Strathcona and Sunshine Coast TSAs are used as benchmarks to represent coastal areas, the Quesnel and Lakes TSAs are considered representative of the central/northern interior, and the Okanagan and Cranbrook TSAs represent the southern interior.

Several key FPC requirements and one Forest Renewal Plan (FRBC) initiative are assessed for their impact on harvest levels – riparian manage-ment areas, biodiversity, watershed assessment, identified wildlife, soil conservation, visual quality objectives and watershed restoration (FRBC). The estimated harvest level impacts of riparian management areas and biodiversity are based on technical analyses of the TSR data sets from the representative TSAs. The effects of watershed assessment, identified wildlife, soil conservation, visual quality objectives and watershed restoration are based on best professional estimates.

In several of the TSAs studied in this assessment, the estimated short-term timber supply impacts do not relate well with the percent land base reductions or reduced harvest volumes that will be brought about by Forest Practices Code requirements. This is primarily to do with how timber supplies are projected to decline over time and how sensitive a given projection is to changes affecting the inventory.

Some of the TSAs studied have fairly robust timber supplies and show little or no immediate timber supply impact if a proportion of the timber harvesting land base is excluded to meet FPC requirements. In other TSAs a smaller proportion of the timber harvesting land base remains as mature timber and exclusion or deferral of harvesting from these areas has a disproportionately large short-term timber supply impact. In the longer term, the relationship between land base/harvested volume reductions and timber supply impacts is more direct.

A major factor that will play a large role in the impact that FPC requirements have on the provincial timber supply is the operational interpretation of guidebooks. Many FPC guidebooks allow considerable flexibility in their application to site-specific activities. This flexibility will, by design, result in some variation in guidebook application in different areas of the province, and will therefore also result in varying impacts to harvest levels. To address the uncertainty associated with the interpretation of the guidebooks, this analysis is based on the expected specified requirements.

The results presented in this report are judgements made by the Working Group concerning future analysis and information that the Chief Forester may reflect in his allowable cut determinations. The Chief Forester retains sole authority under the Forest Act for allowable cut determinations, and he may choose different harvest schedules than those presented here in order to accommodate social or economic consequences to changes in timber supply, or due to his views on technical matters or anticipated timing of projected changes. It is therefore important to note that the base case timber supply forecast is but one of many different information sources that the Chief Forester reviews prior to making an AAC determination under Section 7 of the Forest Act.

Given the potential differences between AAC determinations and timber supply forecasts, this report does not attempt to document any potential job impacts associated with implementation of the Forest Practices Code. This is a complex matter that would require reconciliation of additional labour inputs associated with delivering the new code against any potential job loss associated with changes in timber supply.

Finally, it should be recognized that the specific analysis work undertaken for this report did not attempt to project any possible benefits that might accrue from more strategic forest management plans targetted specifically at growing more timber. Potentially increased silviculture activity could result in more fibre being produced in the future also having a positive employment benefit.

Section 1

Analysis Methods

• riparian management areas – areas adjacent to streams, lakes and wetlands
• biodiversity – stand- and landscape-level requirements for maintaining the diversity of plants, animals and other living organisms in all their forms and levels of organization
• watershed assessment – evaluation of the cumulative impact of proposed activities and developments on stream flows, sediments, landslides and stream channel stability
• identified wildlife – species at risk to be managed through higher-level plans, wildlife habitat areas or general wildlife measures
• soil conservation – requirements to reduce detrimental soil disturbance and restore productivity to temporary access structures
• visual quality objectives – resource management objectives that reflect the desired level of visual quality based on physical characteristics and social concerns
• watershed restoration – road and landslide rehabilitation work carried out under FRBC.

1. Riparian reserves along streams and lake shores were adjusted to meet FPC specifications for each stream class. Note that riparian reserves are exclusions from the timber harvesting land base, as opposed to riparian management zones in which limited portions of the timber volume may be harvested (see point 2 below).
2. The timber volume harvested from each block was reduced by the amount retained in riparian management zones for buffering riparian reserves and to buffer streams without reserves (S4, S5 and S6 streams).
3. Seral stage requirements specifying minimum percentages of the forest landscape to be maintained in older age forests and maximum percentages allowed in younger age forests were applied.*
4. Requirements for wildlife tree patches to be left unharvested within cutblocks were applied.*

• watershed assessments – The estimated short- and long-term impact of watershed assessments on the provincial timber supply is 1%, based on landscape-level biodiversity being in place and an estimated 15% reduction in the impact of watershed assessments due to watershed restoration projects being implemented under FRBC.
• identified wildlife – FPC guidebooks for identified wildlife were not complete at the time of this analysis. Nevertheless, the impact of wildlife requirements on the provincial timber supply is estimated to be 1% over both the short and long term. This figure does not include impacts for species that may generate greater than a 1% impact (e.g., spotted owl, marbled murrelet, grizzly bear, caribou, northern goshawk).
• soil conservation – Over the short term, it is assumed that soil conservation measures will have little or no impact on the timber supply. However, over the long term, reducing detrimental soil disturbance and rehabilitating temporary access structures and bladed skid-roads could result in a gain in the provincial timber supply of approximately 2.3%.
• visual quality objectives – Visual quality objectives can be very restraining on timber supply, especially in areas with large numbers of visually sensitive sites. However, a number of FPC provisions, such as riparian and biodiversity requirements, increased partial cutting and smaller cutblocks, along with improvements in blending cutblocks into the landscape and minor shifts in VQO classes, are expected to reduce visual impacts to the extent that harvest level gains of approximately 2% can be achieved over both the short and long term.
• watershed restoration – As discussed above, watershed restoration can help offset the impact of watershed assessment over the short term. Over the long term, watershed restoration could result in harvest level gains of 0.3% to 1.0%, due primarily to road and landslide rehabilitation.

The provincial AAC was then apportioned to the three impact categories based on a broad estimate of what proportion of the province was likely to meet the average impact groupings; based on broad biophysical considerations such as wet versus dry and so on.

Short-term (first decade) regional timber supply impacts were calculated by summing the weighted reductions for all three impact groupings within each region.

VQO gains were estimated for each forest region, based on the provincial target of approximately 2%. Although the gains were determined analytically (by relaxing timber supply modelling constraints for visuals by 5%), it is recognized that field techniques (discussed earlier in this section) to realize these savings will vary among timber supply areas. This matter is discussed further in Section 2 "Results."

Section 2

Results

The Province

Regions

Section 3

Conclusions

The estimated impact of watershed assessments on the provincial timber supply is 1%, over both the short and long term. Identified wildlife requirements are also estimated to impact short- and long-term harvest levels by 1%; however, this figure does not account for individual species that may generate greater than a 1% impact (e.g, spotted owl, marbled murrelet, grizzly bear, caribou, northern goshawk).

Visual quality objectives can be very restraining on timber supply, especially in areas with large numbers of visually sensitive sites. However, a number of FPC provisions, such as riparian and biodiversity requirements, increased partial cutting and smaller cutblocks, along with improvements in blending cutblocks into the landscape, are expected to reduce visual impacts to the extent that harvest level gains of approximately 2% can be achieved over both the short and long term.

On a provincial average, weighted by the proportion of the provincial AAC harvested from the coast and the interior, implementation of the FPC will have a net impact of approximately 6% on the short-term harvest level. This estimate includes anticipated short-term harvest level gains of approximately 2% attributable to visual quality objectives.

Over the long term, it is estimated that FPC requirements will have a net impact of approximately 7% on provincial harvest levels. This estimate includes anticipated long-term harvest level gains attributable to visual quality objectives (2%), FPC soil conservation measures to reduce detrimental soil disturbance and rehabilitate temporary access structures and bladed skidroads (2.3%), and road and landslide rehabilitation conducted under FRBC watershed restoration projects (0.3%–1.0%). In addition, it may be feasible to further reduce harvest impacts over the long term through various silviculture investments and other strategies.

The impact of FPC requirements on timber supplies will not be felt equally across the province. Forest regions that are dominated by wet, mountainous forests will incur higher impacts than dry, flatter regions. There are several reasons for this. The percentage of area expected to be excluded for riparian reserves in dry, flat areas is, on average, only about one quarter of the percentage excluded in wet, mountainous forests. This is due simply to the lower densities of streams and gullies, and lower stream class ratings. In addition, the biodiversity requirements that apply to much of the dry forests are less constraining on the rate of harvest than the requirements for wet areas. This is due primarily to much less constraining requirements for older forests due to the frequent disturbances that occur naturally in dry forests.