Executive Summary
To address concerns over the impact the Forest Practices Code (FPC) will have on provincial timber supplies, the Chief Forester has undertaken a review of potential short- and long-term impacts, based on an analysis of six of the province's timber supply areas (TSAs)—Strathcona, Sunshine Coast, Quesnel, Okanagan, Lakes and Cranbrook. The estimated impacts of the FPC presented in this report are incremental to the timber supply impacts already accounted for in the provincial Timber Supply Review (TSR).The analysis assessed several key FPC requirements and one Forest Renewal Plan (FRBC) initiative for their impact on harvest levels—riparian management areas, biodiversity, watershed assessment, identified wildlife, soil conservation, visual quality objectives and watershed restoration (FRBC). The estimated harvest level impacts of riparian management areas and biodiversity are based on technical analyses using Forest Service Simulation Model (FSSIM) data sets. The effects of watershed assessment, identified wildlife, soil conservation, visual quality objectives and watershed restoration are based on best professional estimates.
FPC requirements for riparian management areas and biodiversity proved to have the largest impacts on the provincial timber supply. Riparian and biodiversity requirements will impact harvest levels by approximately 6% over the short term, and by approximately 10% over the long term. Riparian requirements impact the timber supply as a result of areas excluded from the timber harvesting land base as permanent riparian reserves and the reduced timber volumes available (ranging from 50%–95%) for harvest in the riparian management zones that buffer the reserves. Biodiversity requirements impact the timber supply primarily through timber retained for the maintenance of mature and older forest cover and a reduction in available timber resulting from the establishment of wildlife tree patches.
The estimated impact of watershed assessments on the provincial timber supply is 1%, over both the short and long term. Identified wildlife requirements are also estimated to impact short- and long-term harvest levels by 1%; however, this figure does not account for individual species that may generate greater than a 1% impact (e.g., spotted owl, marbled murrelet, grizzly bear, caribou, northern goshawk).
Visual quality objectives (VQOs) can be very restraining on timber supply, especially in areas with large numbers of visually sensitive sites. However, a number of FPC provisions, such as riparian and biodiversity requirements, increased partial cutting, and smaller cutblocks, along with improvements in blending cutblocks into the landscape and minor shifts in VQO classes, are expected to reduce visual impacts to the extent that harvest level gains of approximately 2% can be achieved over both the short and long term.
On a provincial average, weighted by the proportion of the provincial AAC harvested from the coast and the interior, implementation of the FPC will have a net impact of approximately 6% on the short-term harvest level. This estimate includes anticipated short-term harvest level gains of approximately 2% attributable to visual quality objectives.
Over the long term, it is estimated that FPC requirements will have a net impact of approximately 7% on provincial harvest levels. This estimate includes anticipated long-term harvest level gains attributable to visual quality objectives (2%), FPC soil conservation requirements (2.3%), and FRBC watershed restoration projects (0.3–1.0%). In addition, it may be feasible to further offset harvest impacts over the long term through various silviculture investments and other strategies.
The impact of FPC requirements on short-term AAC in different areas of the province will vary significantly from the provincial average. Forecast first decade declines for each forest region are as follows: Vancouver, 9.2%; Prince Rupert, 6.1%; Prince George, 3.6%; Kamloops, 3.9%; Cariboo, 3.3%; and Nelson, 8.3%. These percentages include the potential harvest level gains attributable to visual quality objectives.
There are several reasons why some forest regions are much less affected by FPC requirements than other areas. The percentage of area expected to be excluded for riparian reserves in dry, flat forests is, on average, only about one quarter of the percentage excluded in wet, mountainous forests. This is due simply to the lower densities of streams and gullies, and lower stream class ratings in many areas of the interior. In addition, the biodiversity requirements that apply to much of the dry forests are less constraining on the rate of harvest than the requirements for wet areas. This is due primarily to much less constraining requirements for older forest due to the frequent disturbances that occur naturally in the dry forests.
A major factor that will play a large role in the impact that FPC requirements have on provincial timber supplies is the operational interpretation of the guidebooks. Many FPC guidebooks allow considerable flexibility in their application to site-specific activities. This flexibility will, by design, result in some variation in guidebook application in different areas of the province, and will therefore also result in varying impacts to harvest levels.
The analysis presented in this report is based on the minimum requirements stated in the FPC guidebooks, and therefore represents a conservative estimate of impacts. If more stringent requirements are implemented, the effect on the timber supply forecast can be expected to increase.
