As part of the provincial Timber Supply Review, the British Columbia Forest Service has examined the availability of timber in the Morice Timber Supply Area (TSA). The analysis assesses how current forest management practices affect the supply of wood available for harvesting over both the short (next 20 years) and long (next 250 years) term. It also examines the potential changes in timber supply stemming from uncertainties about forest growth and management actions. It is important to note that the various harvest forecasts included in the report indicate only the timber supply implications of current practices and uncertainty. As such, the forecasts should be used for discussion purposes only; they are not allowable annual cut (AAC) recommendations.
The Morice TSA consists of a total of about 1 499 000 hectares, of which about 634 000 hectares are currently considered available for timber harvesting under existing management practices. The area is dominated by lodgepole pine, balsam and spruce stands, with minor amounts of aspen, hemlock, cottonwood, and white pine.
The current AAC for the Morice TSA is 2 000 000 cubic metres per year, of which 5000 cubic metres is allocated to woodlot licences. However, the area and volume allocated to woodlots are not considered in this analysis, and therefore the current AAC is assumed to be 1 995 000 cubic metres per year in this analysis.
The results of this timber supply analysis suggest that the current harvest level of 1 995 000 cubic metres can be maintained for 90 years, followed by a 4% decline per decade for 6 decades to a longterm harvest level of 1 614 000 cubic metres per year.
The above results reflect current knowledge and information on forest inventory and growth. However, it is important to recognize that uncertainty exists about several of the factors that affect timber supply. A series of sensitivity analyses indicate that these uncertainties can affect timber supply to varying degrees.
The analysis indicates the shortterm harvest forecast is moderately affected only if existing stand volumes have been overestimated by 20% and the rate of decline is limited to 4% per decade. The longterm harvest level is moderately affected by uncertainties about the regenerated stand volumes, the timber harvesting land base, and the possible increase in the requirements for old growth.
All forecasts presented indicate the current harvest level can
be maintained for at least 10 more years without risking
future timber supply disruptions. Any changes in forest management
practices, the timber harvesting land base, data and estimates
that occur over the next few years will be incorporated in the
next analysis which will occur within 5 years.