QUESNEL TSA

SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Economics and Trade Branch
British Columbia Ministry of Forests

Executive Summary

The Socio-Economic Analysis of the Quesnel Timber Supply Area (TSA) is one of four reports prepared as part of the Timber Supply Review process and Allowable Annual Cut (AAC) determination. The purpose of this analysis is to illustrate the social and economic impacts of timber harvest decisions, which might result from the Timber Supply Review, and to generate public comment.

Current Socio-Economic Profile

• The Quesnel TSA is located in the Cariboo Forest Region, and is under the joint administration of the Quesnel Forest District and Cariboo Forest Region.

• In 1991, the population of the TSA was 22 860 persons, the City of Quesnel and adjacent communities of Red Bluff, Barlow Creek and Bouchie Lake form the largest populated area with 8179 people. Other communities in the TSA include Nazko, Wells, Kersley, and several other small centres.

• Six First Nations Bands have historical interest in the TSA, four of which have reserves located in the TSA. The bands have 1598 members, of whom 1127 live on reserves. Approximately five percent of the adult population available for work are employed in the forest industry. Two of the bands (Soda Creek and Ulkatcho) do not reside within the TSA boundaries.

• First Nations people view settling treaty negotiations of paramount importance. They are generally opposed to participating in land use planning exercises until treaty negotiations are settled.

• Major employers in the TSA are (in order of significance) the forest industry, the supply and service sector (1), the public sector, tourism, agriculture and mining.

(1) Supply and services includes parts of manufacturing, construction and transportation not attributable to the major basic sectors, fishing and trapping, and the non-basic sector.

• In addition to employment income, the economy of the TSA is supported by investment income, unemployment insurance, pension income and other government transfer payments.

• The forest industry directly and indirectly accounts for approximately 35 percent of TSA employment. The major employers include Cariboo Pulp and Paper, C&C Wood Products, Quesnel River Pulp, Slocan Forest Products, Tolko Industries, Weldwood of Canada, and West Fraser Mills. In 1993, these companies provided employment for 2265 people, including a portion of sawmill and pulp mill employment related to fibre supply from outside the TSA and the bulk of the value-added employment. In addition, other smaller secondary wood products manufacturing sectors accounted for about 45 person years (PY) of employment.

• In 1993, the combined sales revenues of the forest industry in the Quesnel TSA exceeded $570 million. This amount includes revenue associated with fibre supply from outside the TSA.

• In 1993, the forest industry related to the Quesnel TSA harvest generated $96 million in provincial and federal government revenues. This figure reflects the 1993 situation, thus does not include the higher stumpage rates that went into effect in May of 1994. Since that time stumpage rates have increased by approximately 80 percent.

• Tourism directly and indirectly accounts for approximately five percent of total TSA employment. The area's main attraction are the wide variety of outdoor recreation activities, and its vast, rolling scenic landscape.

• Interviewees for the study believe that there is opportunity for growth in tourism and recreation, particularly in the areas of sport fishing, wilderness tourism, and winter activities such as cross-country skiing, snowmobiling and sled-dog racing.

• Together, the agriculture and mining sectors account for approximately 6 percent of total TSA employment.

Environmental Setting

• The TSA is characterized by flat rolling hills in the west to steeper terrain rising to the Cariboo Mountains in the east.

• The TSA has a wide variety of wildlife species because of its diverse soils, climates, and topography. There are provincially significant populations of caribou and the American Peregrine Falcon.

• In the ecosections represented in the TSA, approximately 22 species (mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, fish and vascular plants) are candidates for designation as endangered and a further 26 species are considered sensitive or vulnerable. These species may be found within the Quesnel TSA.

• Many of the streams in the TSA have either critical or moderate value as spawning and rearing habitats.

Current TSA Profile

• The Quesnel TSA covers approximately 1.65 million hectares. The B.C. Ministry of Forests reports that 61 percent of the total land base is available for long-term harvesting under current forest management practices. This estimate does not consider the settlement of treaty negotiations, land use planning initiatives such as the Cariboo-Chilcotin Land Use Plan, and changing forest management practices.

• The current allowable annual cut (AAC) is 2 350 000 cubic metres per year and is apportioned to a coniferous AAC of 2 000 000 cubic metres per year, problem forest types AAC of 300 000 cubic metres per year, and deciduous AAC of 50 000 cubic metres per year.

• This timber supply review did not analyze woodlot licences (34 500 cubic metres) and the deciduous component (50 000 cubic metres), as a result the AAC assessed is 2 265 500. Subsequently, this report discusses socio-economic impacts of TSA harvested timber related to this AAC.

Socio-Economic Impacts of Timber Harvest Levels

• To provide a basis for discussion, the Ministry of Forests chose three scenarios for this analysis: Scenario 1 for a detailed, long-term, analysis and two additional scenarios for a short-term review to illustrate the sensitivity of jobs, income and revenues to changing harvest levels. These scenarios are provided as illustrations only and do not indicate preferred options.

Scenario 1

• Scenario 1 maintains the current harvest rate of 2 265 500 cubic metres per year for the first seven decades, declining approximately ten percent in Decade 8 and approximately four percent in the following decade to the long-term harvest level of 1 955 500 cubic metres per year.

Scenario 2

• Scenario 2 reduces the harvest rate immediately to the long-term harvest level of 1 955 500 cubic metres per year.

Scenario 3

• Scenario 3 begins at an initial rate of 2 900 000 cubic metres per year for the first two decades, declines by approximately ten percent in Decades 3 and 4 to the long-term harvest level of 1 955 500 cubic metres per year.

• The following figure shows the three harvest scenarios and the associated TSA total employment levels.

The left side information is 'Harvest ('000 m3 per year)'
the right side information is 'TSA Total Employment (PYs)'

The socio-economic impacts of these scenarios are summarized in the following table.

This table is not available

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