The Socio-Economic Analysis of the 100 Mile House Timber Supply Analysis is one of four reports being compiled for the 100 Mile House Timber Supply Area (TSA) as part of the Timber Supply Review process and Allowable Annual Cut (AAC) determination. The purpose of the analysis is to set out the social and economic impacts of alternative timber harvest decisions which might result from the Timber Supply Review, and to generate public comment. It is a wide ranging study which includes First Nations perspectives, socio/economic impacts, environmental implications and community impacts. The field work for this study was conducted in the period April 1994 to June 1994. Subsequent events, such as CORE's land use report on the Cariboo-Chilcotin, are not taken into account in this analysis.
The 100 Mile House TSA is located in the Cariboo Forest Region, and is under the administration of the 100 Mile House Forest District.
The population of the TSA is 13 145 persons, with the largest community, 100 Mile House, having a population of 1 866 (1991 Census). Other communities in the TSA include: Clinton, 70 Mile House, Lone Butte, Canim Lake, Lac La Hache and 108 Mile House.
There are two First Nations Bands and one association which reside primarily in the TSA, the Canim Lake and the High Bar Bands. There are another eight Bands which have territorial claims to the area. Approximately 600 First Nations people reside in the TSA and an estimated 10 percent of the adult population available for work are employed in the forest industry. Unemployment levels are high ranging between 20 percent and 50 percent depending on the season.
First Nations people in the area are generally opposed to participating in land use planning exercises until treaty negotiations are settled. They view the treaty negotiations of paramount importance.
The forest sector, the public sector, tourism, agriculture and mining, support about 75 percent of the employment in the TSA. While the service sector directly employs more people than each of these sectors separately, service sector employment ultimately depends on the income generated in the basic sectors.
In addition to employment income, the economy of the TSA is driven by investment income, unemployment insurance, pension income and other government transfer payments.
The forest industry directly supports about 30 percent of total employment in the TSA. The major employers in the TSA are Ainsworth Lumber Co. (Ainsworth) and Weldwood of Canada (Weldwood). In 1993, their combined sales revenues were estimated at over $175 million and they employed about 500 person years at their sawmills. In addition, the secondary wood products manufacturing sector accounted for over 120 person years (PYs) of employment and generated approximately $11 million in sales. Harvesting and other forestry operations in the TSA employed an estimated 350 PYs. With the increase in prices experienced in 1994, forest industry revenues will likely be in the $200 million range.
Forest industry employment per cubic metre in the TSA is likely to increase in the foreseeable future as a result of increases in value-added opportunities, greater wood utilization, changes in forestry, logging and silviculture practices under the new Forest Practices Code, and the B.C. Forest Renewal Plan.
The TSA's forest industry generated about $35 million in revenues to the provincial government in 1993. This number is expected to increase substantially as a result of higher lumber prices and the large increase in stumpage rates that went into effect in May 1994.
The tourism sector directly supports approximately 16 percent of the total employment in the TSA. The area's main attractions are its vast, rolling, scenic landscape and its many recreational lakes. There are numerous outdoor activities that capitalize on the beauty of the area and its fish and wildlife.
People interviewed for the study believe that there is considerable opportunity for growth in tourism and recreation, particularly in the areas of sport fishing, wilderness tourism, and winter activities such as cross-country skiing and snowmobiling.
The agriculture and mining sectors respectively account for 6 percent and 1 percent of the total employment in the TSA.
The topography of the TSA is characterized by rolling hills throughout most of the area, with higher mountains in the Marble Range to the West and Quesnel Highlands to the East of the TSA.
The area has important wildlife populations which includes mule deer, caribou, grizzly bear, California bighorn sheep and wolverine.
There are five species of birds and fish and 10 species of vascular plants within the TSA that are candidates for endangered designation. The five endangered species of birds and fish include the American Peregrine Falcon, the Prairie Falcon, the Western Grebe, the Giant Pygmy Whitefish and the Lake Whitefish. A further 31 species of mammals, birds, reptiles/amphibians and fish are considered sensitive or vulnerable.
The TSA includes a large number of lakes and rivers. A large percentage of the streams in the TSA are important spawning and rearing habitats for a variety of freshwater fish species.
The 100 Mile House TSA covers approximately 1.2 million hectares. The B.C. Ministry of Forests reports that almost 59 percent of the total land base is available for long term harvesting under current forest management practices. This estimate excludes factors such as First Nations treaty negotiations, land use planning initiatives such as the Cariboo-Chilcotin Land Use Plan, and changing forest management practices.
The current AAC is 1 237 000 m3/year for sawlog timber harvesting and 13 000 m3 per year for woodlots totalling 1 250 000/m3 year.
To provide a basis for discussion, the Ministry of Forests chose three scenarios. The scenarios are shown in Figure ES-1.
Figure ES-1
Table ES-2
Community Impacts
No impact, Positive employment
impacts on forest dependent communities.
First Nations Impacts
Concern about depletion
of timber resource before treaty negotiations complete.
Concern about the lack of employment opportunities and access
to timber supply.
Environmental Impacts
All three scenarios propose
a level of harvest which may have a negative impact on wildlife
and sensitive habitats. Scenario 3 may be the most desirable from
an environmental standpoint because it assumes the lowest levels
of harvest.
(2) Represents current harvest for sawlog timber harvesting of 1 237 000 m3; excludes 13 000 m3/year for woodlot licenses currently under tenure.