The BC Forest Service is presently conducting a provincial timber supply review to assist the Chief Forester in setting allowable annual cut (AAC) levels. The review examines the amount of timber available for harvesting in timber supply areas (TSAs). Four documents are being prepared for each of the province's 37 TSAs: two technical documents (Timber Supply Analysis and Socio-Economic Analysis) offer information on timber supply alternatives and their social, environmental, and economic implications; a Discussion Paper summarizes the technical information and provides a focus for public debate; and a fourth report describes the rationale behind the Chief Forester's AAC decision.
The Morice Timber Supply Area (TSA) encompasses 1 498 697 hectares and lies in the south eastern portion of the Prince Rupert Forest region. It is bordered to the west by the Cascade Mountains and to the south by Tweedsmuir Provincial Park. The TSA is one of nine TSAs in the Prince Rupert Forest Region and is administered from the Morice Forest District office in Houston.
The Morice TSA, lying along the western edge of British Columbia's interior plateau, is characterized by mountainous terrain in the southwest to rolling in the north and east. Major rivers in the Morice TSA include the Bulkley, Morice and Nadina. There are also two large lakes, Babine in the north and Ootsa in the south. Biogeoclimatic zones include Sub-Boreal Spruce (59 percent), Englemann Spruce-Subalpine Fir (26 percent), Alpine Tundra (11 percent), Coastal Western Hemlock (three percent) and Mountain Hemlock (one percent). The dominant tree species are lodgepole pine, spruce and balsam.
Big-game species in the area include moose, grizzly bear, black bear, wolf, mountain goat and small herds of caribou and whitetailed deer. The moose and grizzly bear populations are considered regionally significant.
The rivers and lakes of the TSA support spawning grounds for four species of salmon: sockeye, coho, pink and chinook. Resident sport fish include steelhead trout, rainbow trout, Dolly Varden, char and whitefish. The TSA borders the West Arm of Babine Lake which has the largest recreational sports fishery in the region.
Houston is the largest community with a 1991 population of 3 628 and is the supply and distribution centre for various rural areas and the smaller communities of the TSA. Granisle is the second largest community with a 1991 population of 803. Granisle's current population is estimated to have dropped to 350 as a result of the closure of the Bell Mine, which was Granisle's main employer.
The total 1991 TSA population of 6 075 represented a 6.0 percent decrease from the 1986 population of 6 460. This population decline was very significant when compared to the provincial growth rate of 13.8 percent. Most of the decline occurred in Houston.
The most recent TSA-wide unemployment rate was 9.6 percent, 1.6 percentage points above the BC rate of 8.0 percent.
In 1991, 36.0 percent of the TSA labour force was employed by the forest industry.
The Morice TSA has an Allowable Annual Cut (AAC) of 1 995 000 m3/year. The names and AACs of the established licensees appear in Table 3-1. Northwood Pulp and Timber is the largest licensee with 53.4 percent of the total available AAC. Houston Forest Products has the second largest licence at 35.7 percent and the Small Business Forest Enterprise Program has been allocated 9.3 percent of the AAC. Forest Service Reserve (0.8 percent) and other licences (0.8 percent) comprise the remaining cut.
In the Morice TSA, there is relatively modest use of provincial parks. Fishing is the primary activity with most parks on lakesides with boat launches.
The Ministry of Forests maintains 25 recreational sites and six hiking trails. The Nanika - Kidprice Portage Trail has a three-day canoe/portage trip into the Coast Mountains and provides an excellent wilderness experience. This area has been recommended for protection under the Protected Areas Strategy.
The most significant big game species for hunting is the moose where at least 13 000 hunter days are exerted in any given year. Another important figure is the size of the non-resident hunter effort, representing five percent of total hunter effort in 1993. Fourteen guide-outfitting territories are in or partially within the Morice TSA.
There are approximately 128 official traplines located within the Morice TSA.
Total capacity of the Morice Stock Range is estimated to be 27 273 animal unit months (AUMs). In 1993, 10 867 AUMs of forage were authorized for use by livestock and 8 908 AUMs were actually consumed by 3 491 head of cattle and horses. The Morice Stock range has capacity for growth.
Six First Nations have traditional territory and a total of 17 reserves in the Morice TSA. Of these, only two support year-round communities within the TSA.
Three harvest forecasts from the Morice TSA Timber Supply Analysis [1995] report are examined in this socio-economic analysis. These forecasts represent possible harvest flow patterns given current land base and forest management practices in the Morice TSA. The forecasts were chosen to illustrate a range of social, environmental, and economic implications associated with different harvest levels. The forecasts are neither meant to suggest a preferred AAC level nor do they represent the only options that could be considered in the final AAC determination.
The current AAC for the Morice TSA is 1 995 000 m3/year. The Ministry of Forests estimates the TSA's long-run harvest level to be 1 614 000 m3/year. Figure ES-1 and Table ES-1 show the three harvest flows.
The impacts at the TSA level of all three Scenarios are summarized in Table ES-2.
In Scenario 1, there would be no employment or employment income impacts for the first nine decades.
In Scenario 2, there would be an immediate increase
in TSA employment of 385 PYs above present employment levels.
The corresponding direct and indirect/induced employment income
gains would total $11.61 million. In year ten, the harvest level
drops by four percent resulting in the loss of 78 PYs. Direct
and indirect/induced employment income losses would total $2.34
million. The harvest level and employment would continue to drop
by four percent per decade for the next nine decades. During this
decline, it is not until year 60 when the harvest falls below
current levels.
| |||||||||
| Harvest | |||||||||
| Current | |||||||||
Scenario 1 | ||||||
| Harvest in '000 m3 | ||||||
| Economic Account | ||||||
| Employment Direct | ||||||
| (PY/Year) Indirect | ||||||
| Total | ||||||
| Employment Direct | ||||||
| Income ($1994 Indirect | ||||||
| Millions/Year) Total | ||||||
| Community Account | ||||||
| Population | no effect | |||||
| Local Government | no effect | |||||
| Social Fabric | no effect | |||||
| Aboriginal Account | ||||||
| Economic | no forestry-related impacts
continuing threat to traplines | |||||
| Cultural/Historical | indeterminate | |||||
| Land Claims | indeterminate | |||||
Scenario 2 | ||||||
| Harvest in '000 m3 | ||||||
| Economic Account | ||||||
| Employment Direct | ||||||
| (PY/Year) Indirect | ||||||
| Total | ||||||
| Employment Direct | ||||||
| Income ($1994 Indirect | ||||||
| Millions/Year) Total | ||||||
| Community Account | ||||||
| Population | small population increase possible in short term | |||||
| Local Government | no effect | |||||
| Social Fabric | indeterminate | |||||
| Aboriginal Account | ||||||
| Economic | increase in short and medium-term forest jobs
increased threat to traplines | |||||
| Cultural/Historical | indeterminate | |||||
| Land Claims | indeterminate | |||||
Scenario 3 | ||||||
| Harvest in '000 m3 | ||||||
| Economic Account | ||||||
| Employment Direct | ||||||
| (PY/Year) Indirect | ||||||
| Total | ||||||
| Employment Direct | ||||||
| Income ($1994 Indirect | ||||||
| Millions/Year) Total | ||||||
| Community Account | ||||||
| Population | small population decrease possible | |||||
| Local Government | small effect in medium-term if small mill closes | |||||
| Social Fabric | moderate strain in medium-term | |||||
| Aboriginal Account | ||||||
| Economic | small forest job loss in medium-term
reduced threat to traplines | |||||
| Cultural/Historical | indeterminate | |||||
| Land Claims | indeterminate | |||||
In Scenario 3, there would be no employment or employment income changes for two decades. In year 20, the harvest level decreases by four percent resulting in the loss of 61 PYs and $1.84 million in employment income. The harvest level and employment would continue to fall by four percent per decade for the next nine decades (with the exception of year 90 when there is no change).
Under Scenario 1, there would be no community impacts in the short and medium-term as there are no reductions in the AAC until year 90.
While harvesting jobs would increase in Scenario 2, these may be absorbed by existing work crews and contractors. Additionally, with local mills at capacity, the incremental wood would likely leave the area for processing in mills in surrounding TSAs. The majority of new employment created in the TSA would be in Houston while most of the remainder would accrue to the smaller communities in the TSA.
Under Scenario 3, the communities in the Morice TSA would face negative impacts in the third decade. Based on the survey of licensees, approximately 85 percent of TSA harvesting personnel reside in and around Houston and at least a similar proportion of manufacturing employees reside in this community. Houston would be the focal point of community impacts.
Under Scenario 1, because there is no reduction in the harvest level for 90 years, there would be no direct impact on employment. However, First Nations people have expressed the opinion that no reduction in the harvest level now could mean more difficulty in obtaining tenure and increasing their involvement in the management of forestry resources in the future. This is based on their concern that current levels may not be sustainable.
The Scenario 2 increase could improve the economic development prospects of the bands in the near future while the Scenario 3 reduction would have the opposite affect. On the other hand, any increase in the harvest level could be seen to be negative if it reduces a band's ability to achieve its own long-term resource management goals. A reduction in harvesting now could mean a larger forestry resource in the future, by which time the First Nations hope to have a greater say in forestry management.
The impacts at the provincial level of all three Scenarios are summarized in Table ES-3.
In Scenario 1, there would be no employment or employment
income impacts for the first nine decades.
| Current | ||||||
| Harvest in '000 m3 | ||||||
| Economic Account | ||||||
| Employment Direct | ||||||
| (PY/Year) Indirect | ||||||
| Total | ||||||
| Employment Direct | ||||||
| Income ($1994 Indirect | ||||||
| Millions/Year) Total | ||||||
| Government Revenue Account
($1994 Millions/Year) | ||||||
| Provincial: | ||||||
| Stumpage and Rents | ||||||
| Personal Income Taxes | ||||||
| Other Taxes | ||||||
| Total | ||||||
| Federal | ||||||
| Environmental Account | ||||||
| · reduced populations of Old growth dependent species
· increased populations of early seral stage inhabitants · decline in overall biodiversity | ||||||
| Current | ||||||
| Harvest in '000 m3 | ||||||
| Economic Account | ||||||
| Employment Direct | ||||||
| (PY/Year) Indirect | ||||||
| Total | ||||||
| Employment Direct | ||||||
| Income ($1994 Indirect | ||||||
| Millions/Year) Total | ||||||
| Government Revenue Account
($1994 Millions/Year) | ||||||
| Provincial: | ||||||
| Stumpage and Rents | ||||||
| Personal Income Taxes | ||||||
| Other Taxes | ||||||
| Total | ||||||
| Federal | ||||||
| Environmental Account | ||||||
| · fastest reduction in populations of Old growth dependent species
· fastest increase in populations of early seral stage inhabitants · decline in overall biodiversity | ||||||
| Current | ||||||
| Harvest in '000 m3 | ||||||
| Economic Account | ||||||
| Employment Direct | ||||||
| (PY/Year) Indirect | ||||||
| Total | ||||||
| Employment Direct | ||||||
| Income ($1994 Indirect | ||||||
| Millions/Year) Total | ||||||
| Government Revenue Account
($1994 Millions/Year) | ||||||
| Provincial: | ||||||
| Stumpage and Rents | ||||||
| Personal Income Taxes | ||||||
| Other Taxes | ||||||
| Total | ||||||
| Federal | ||||||
| Environmental Account | ||||||
| · slowest reductions in populations of Old growth dependent species
· slowest increase in populations of early seral stage inhabitants · lowest decline in overall biodiversity because of lower long-term harvest level. | ||||||
In Scenario 2, there would be an increase in employment immediately. Employment in the province would rise by 840 person-years above present employment levels. The corresponding direct and indirect/induced employment income gains would total $23.28. In year ten, the harvest level drops by four percent resulting in the loss of 170 PYs. Direct and indirect/induced employment income losses would total $4.70 million. The harvest level and employment would continue to drop by four percent per decade for the next nine decades. During this decline, it is not until year 60 when the harvest falls below current levels.
In Scenario 3, total employment and the corresponding direct and indirect/induced employment income levels would not change for 20 years. In year 20, the harvest level decreases by four percent resulting in the loss of 133 PYs and $3.69 million in employment income. The harvest level and employment continues to fall by four percent per decade for the next nine decades (with the exception of year 90 when there is no change).
The environmental impacts stem from activities on the timber harvesting land base in the Morice TSA, which constitutes 42 percent of the TSA's total land base or 63 percent of the forested land base. Fifty-nine percent of the TSA land base cannot be harvested for one reason or another.
The conversion from old growth to young seral forest would result in a fragmented landscape with significant reduction of mature forest structures. This would create a negative impact on those species that occur in the TSA and which are sensitive to fragmentation and dependent on old growth stands for all or part of their life cycles. Examples of such species in the Morice TSA are marten and other furbearers, grizzly bear, caribou, brown creeper, pileated woodpecker, and the occipeters (forest hunting raptors), including the goshawk, Coopers hawk and sharp shinned hawk.
All scenarios would see road access increase into presently unroaded portions of the Morice TSA. The enhanced access would increase hunter efficiency and thus mortality of big game species, especially moose, deer, goat, black bear and grizzly bear. Of these, the grizzly is the species of greatest management concern in the TSA.
The accelerated increase in younger forest can potentially result in increases in populations of those species that depend on disturbed and early seral forests such as moose, deer, black bear and many small mammals. However, this change in the species balance from that which had adapted to the natural seral mix causes negative impacts to competing species and increases in "pest" species.
Forest practices impact fish habitat in many ways. Direct damage can include bank destabilization, the removal of stream side vegetation and debris jams. Measures to protect streamside and lakeshore habitats from these impacts are outlined in the Interim Regional Timber Harvesting Guidelines of the Prince Rupert Forest Region [1992] .
Under Scenario 3, the total area harvested, and the area directly affected from an environmental perspective would be less than either Scenario 1 or 2. This would allow resource managers greater flexibility to manage for non-timber resources.
In Scenario 1, there are no provincial revenue impacts in the first nine decades.
Provincial government revenues would rise immediately by $17.97 million/year in Scenario 2. In year ten, the harvest level drops by four percent resulting in the loss of $3.56 million/year in provincial revenues. The harvest level and revenues would continue to drop by four percent per decade for the next nine decades.
In Scenario 3, total provincial government revenues would not
change for 20 years. In year 20, the harvest level decreases by
four percent resulting in the loss of $2.85 million/year in provincial
revenue. The harvest level and employment continues to fall by
four percent per decade for the next nine decades (with the exception
of year 90 when there is no change).