The Socio-Economic Analysis of the Robson Valley Timber Supply Area (TSA) is one of four reports prepared as part of the Timber Supply Review process and Allowable Annual Cut (AAC) determination. The purpose of this analysis is to illustrate the social and economic impacts of timber harvest decisions, which might result from the Timber Supply Review, and to generate public comment.
The Robson Valley TSA is one of six TSAs located in the Prince George Forest Region and is under the administration of the Robson Valley Forest District and the Prince George Forest Region.
In 1991, the population of the Robson Valley Forest District was 3590. The largest municipality in the region is Valemount with a 1991 population of 1128, followed by McBride with a population of 580. Other communities in the area include Dome Creek, Dunster, Cresent Spur-Loos, and Tete Jaune.
No First Nations bands have settlements in the TSA; however, two bands, Lheit-Lit'en Nation and the North Thompson Band, have submitted letters of intent to enter into treaty negotiations for areas that cover portions of the TSA land base.
The major employers in the TSA are, in order of economic importance, forestry, the public sector, tourism, and agriculture. According to the 1991 Census of Canada, the total number of people employed in the TSA was 1680.
In addition to employment income, the Robson Valley TSA is supported by investment income, unemployment insurance, pension income, and other government transfer payments.
The forest industry accounts for approximately 33% of total employment in the TSA. This level includes workers directly involved in the forest industry such as fallers, road workers, mill workers, and those in other woodlands operations. The figure also includes people involved in forestry related supply and services industries and the employment supported by the spending of forestry wages and salaries.
The major licensees in the Robson Valley TSA are Zeidler Forest Industries Ltd., with sawmill and veneer mill operations in McBride, and Slocan Forest Products Ltd., with a mill located in Valemount. Other operators in the TSA include Hauer Brothers, Bell Pole, TRC Cedar and Castle Creek Forest Products.
In 1994, the forest industry in the Robson Valley TSA contributed approximately $5.6 million in stumpage revenues. This figure reflects the increases in stumpage rates that went into effect in 1994.
The Robson Valley TSA lies within the Rocky Mountain Trench, bordered by the Cariboo Mountains to the west, the Fraser River and Alberta border/Rockies to the north and east, and the Monashee Range to the south
The main valley is about 240 kilometres long and five kilometres wide, and covers an area of over 1.2 million hectares. The wide valley bottom, numerous deep cutting side valleys and high elevation alpine areas provide a unique environment for a broad range of wildlife.
The Robson Valley is comprised primarily of three ecosections according to the Ecoregion Classification of British Columbia: (1) Upper Fraser Trench, (2) Northern Columbia Mountains, and (3) Northern Park Ranges.1 Also represented are small portions of the Central Park ranges, Big Bend trench, and Hart ranges.
On the basis of discussions with various stakeholders and selected published information, the following list of issues and concerns have been identified as they relate to the environmental profile of the Robson Valley:
The Robson Valley TSA is approximately 1.2 million hectares in size, of which 39% is Crown forest land. Forty-two percent of the Crown forest land base (16 percent of the total land base) is currently available for timber harvesting (see Table 3.1).
The current allowable annual cut is 600 000 cubic metres per year and is apportioned as follows:
To provide a basis for discussion, three scenarios have been chosen for this analysis. Scenario 1 for a detailed, long-term analysis, and two additional scenarios for a short-term review to illustrate the sensitivity of jobs, income, and government revenues to changing harvest levels. These scenarios are provided as illustrations only and do not indicate preferred options.
Scenario 2: the current harvest level drops immediately to 500 000 cubic metres, representing a 17% decline in the AAC. This level is maintained for the next three decades. In Decade 4, the annual harvest level declines a further 8% to 450 000 cubic metres, followed by successive harvest volume declines until Decade 7 when the annual harvest volume reaches its long-term harvest level (see Table 3.7).
Scenario 3: assumes that the current harvest level drops immediately by 40% to 360 000 cubic metres where it remains for the forecast period.
The following figure shows the harvest flows of Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 and the associated total provincial employment levels.
The analysis found that at the TSA level 82 person years (PYs)2 are supported for each 100 000 cubic metres of timber harvested, and approximately 27 indirect and induced Pys3 are supported. In total , the TSA timber harvest supports 109 PYs in harvesting, processing and silviculture related activities for each 100 000 cubic metres of timber harvested.
3) Indirect employment is the result of forest companies purchasing goods and services, while induced employment is created by employees spending their wages and salaries on things such as groceries, haircuts, and dinners out for example.
Provincial labour coefficients show the total employment supported by the Robson Valley TSA harvest across the province, both inside and outside the TSA. Each 100 000 cubic metres of harvest in the TSA supports about 97 PYs of direct employment, 145 PYs of indirect and induced employment, and in total, 242 PYs of total employment.
The current AAC of 596 thousand cubic metres per year supports direct employment of approximately 489 (PYs). Forest industry purchases of goods and services and employee spending of wages and salaries increases the total employment (direct + indirect + induced) attributable to the forestry sector to approximately 650 PYs.
In Decade 2 of Scenario 1, direct employment would decrease by about 49 PYs to 440 PYs. Total employment would decrease by 65 PYs to 585 PYs.
By the long-term harvest level in Decade 7, direct employment would fall by 202 PYs from current levels to 287 PYs, and total employment would decline by 268 PYs from current levels to approximately 382 PYs.
Employment income at the current AAC is approximately $15.3 million direct and $18.9 million total. In Decade 2, direct employment income would drop by $1.5 million and total employment income would drop by 1.9 million.
The long-term harvest level would support direct forestry income of about $9 million and total employment income of $11.1 million.
Across the province, the current AAC supports direct forestry employment of approximately 578 PYs. This figure includes employment supported by chips from mills in the TSA that are processed at Prince George pulp mills, and by Bell Pole milling operations located outside the TSA.
Employment and income impacts would decline similar to the TSA impacts. Total employment would decline in Decade 2 to 1300 PYs and employment income would decline to about $33.2 million, reductions of 142 PYs and $3.6 million respectively.
At the long-term harvest level, the Robson Valley TSA harvest of Scenario 1 would support total employment of 847 PYs and total employment income of $21.6 million.
Provincial government revenues would also decline in response to a reduction in the harvest. Under Scenario 1, revenues would be maintained at their current level of $13.5 million for the first decade; however, in Decade 2, declines in the harvest would begin resulting in a reduction of $1.3 million in Decade 2. Stumpage revenues would decrease by approximately $500 thousand.
The long-term harvest level would generate under current revenue structures approximately $7.9 million - a drop of $5.6 million in total provincial revenues.
Scenario 2 reveals that if the harvest were to decline to 500 000 cubic metres per year, direct forestry employment would decline by 79 PYs in the TSA and a further 26 PYs outside the TSA. Provincially, total employment would decline from 1442 PYs to 1210 PYs in the first decade.
Scenario 3 would lower the harvest immediately to 360 000 cubic metres per year - a 40% reduction. As a result, direct employment in the TSA would decline immediately by approximately 194 PYs, with a further 64 PYs of indirect and induced jobs lost. Provincially, total employment would decline from 1442 PYs to 871 PYs in the first decade.