The British Columbia Forest Service is presently conducting a provincial Timber Supply Review to assist the Chief Forester in setting Allowable Annual Cut (AAC) levels in the province's Timber Supply Area (TSAs). Four reports are released for each TSA. The Timber Supply Analysis reports (TSARs) examine the short-term and long-term effects of current forest management practices on the availability of timber for harvesting in the TSAs. The Socio-Economic Analysis (SEA) reports discuss the social, economic, and environmental implications of changing TSA timber harvest levels. The Discussion Papers summarise the first two reports and encourage public comment on the findings. Finally, the AAC Rationale Statements outline the reasoning behind the Chief Forester's AAC determinations.
This SEA report profiles the Lillooet TSA area and discusses the socio-economic and environmental implications associated with two of the timber harvest forecast scenarios presented in the Lillooet TSA Timber Supply Analysis report (or its addendum). These harvest scenarios were chosen to illustrate a range of impacts; they are not meant to suggest preferred AAC levels, nor will they be the only options considered in the AAC determination.
The Lillooet TSA, part of the Kamloops Forest Region, covers 1.1 million hectares in southwestern BC. It is administered from the Lillooet Forest District office in Lillooet.
Communities - The major communities in the TSA are Lillooet, Lytton, Bralorne, Gold Bridge, and Spences Bridge. In 1991, the TSA had an estimated population of about 5680, including First Nations peoples living on reserves.
Economy - The economies of Lillooet and Lytton are primarily forestry-based. The major employers are Ainsworth Lumber and Bridgeside Higa Forest Industries in Lillooet, and Lytton Lumber in Lytton. The economy outside these two communities is more diversified. Other sectors providing employment in the TSA are: tourism, agriculture, rail transport, electricity generation, and mining. The public sector and First Nations Bands are also major employers.
Environmental Setting - The Lillooet TSA lies west of the Thompson-Okanagan plateau, on the east side of the Coast mountains. The area has a great diversity of wildlife and bird species, good stocks of several salmonid and trout species, and significant key features, such as unique grasslands and broad alpine expanses. The diverse ecology of the Lillooet TSA supports a variety of tree species, with spruce, Douglas-fir, and lodgepole pine predominant. Waterbodies in the TSA include Seton, Anderson, Carpenter, and Downton Lakes, and the Fraser, Thompson, Stein, and Bridge rivers. These are of major importance to fish and wildlife in the TSA. Water quality, quantity and flow timing are of local concern because of generally low precipitation levels.
According to the Timber Supply Analysis report, the current timber harvesting land base is about 278 000 hectares, or 25 percent of the total area. Factors that could significantly impact the future timber harvesting land base include First Nations reserves, management for environmental values, forest management practices, land use planning, and the Protected Areas Strategy (PAS).
The estimated total volume of timber in the TSA is about 48 million m³. The current Allowable Annual Cut (AAC) of 650 000 m³ is apportioned primarily among Ainsworth (348 168 m³), J.S. Jones (88 510 m³), Lytton Lumber (32 778 m³), and the Small Business Forest Enterprise Program (152 544 m³). In recent years, between 50 percent and 75 percent of the SBFEP wood has remained in the TSA for processing by area mills.
The forest industry harvested around 650 000 m³ in 1990 and 1991, 571 000 m³ in 1992, and 636 000 m³ in 1993. The licensees, in particular Ainsworth, have had on-going difficulties meeting their AAC's for reasons which include lack of long-term access planning and road construction to new harvesting areas, protracted planning processes, and the deferral of areas to accommodate First Nations interests and other resource values.
This report examines two timber harvest
forecast scenarios from the Timber Supply Analysis report, as
shown in Figure E.1.
Under Scenario One the annual harvest would be maintained at 650 000 m³ for 3 decades, then decline by about eight percent per decade until the long-term harvest level (LTHL) of 363 000 m³ is reached in Year 90. In Scenario Two, the harvest would drop immediately to 520 000 m³, remain unchanged for eight decades, then fall by about eight percent each decade until the LTHL is achieved in Year 120.
Table ES.1 summarizes the impacts of Scenario One and Scenario Two. These are grouped into sections dealing with the economy and government revenues, communities, First Nations, and the environment.
| Year | ||
| Harvest (1000 m³) | ||
| ECONOMIC IMPACTS - FOREST
SECTOR TSA Employment (Person Years) Direct Indirect/Induced Total |
|
|
| TSA Employment Income ($1993 mil.)
Direct Indirect/Induced Total |
|
|
| Provincial Employment (Person Years)
Direct Indirect/Induced Total |
|
|
| Provincial Employment Income ($1993 mil.)
Direct Indirect/Induced Total |
|
|
| Government Revenues
Provincial Government Revenues ($1993 mil.) Federal Government Revenues ($1993 mil.) |
|
|
COMMUNITY IMPLICATIONS
FIRST NATIONS IMPLICATIONS
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS
The TSA-level economic impacts are assumed to occur in proportion to harvest changes.
It is estimated that the 1993 harvest
level of 636 000 m³ supported 483 PY of direct forest sector
employment and an additional 159 PY in indirect/induced employment.
The after-tax employment income associated with this would be
$15.0 million (direct) and
$3.1 million (indirect/induced). The impacts presented are discussed
with reference to these levels.
Scenario One - Employment and income levels would be approximately two percent higher than 1993 levels for the first three decades, reflecting the slightly higher harvest level. Subsequently, employment levels would track the harvest, declining to 276 direct PY and 91 indirect/induced PY in Year 90 when the LTHL is reached. After-tax income would follow a similar pattern.
Scenario Two
- Direct employment would decline immediately by 18 percent (88
PY), from 483 PY to 395 PY, and indirect/induced employment would
likewise fall from
159 PY to 130 PY. These employment levels would then be sustained
for 80 years, before dropping by about eight percent per decade
and reaching the LTHL in Year 120. After-tax income would drop
similarly.
Under both scenarios, the transition from the current harvest level to the LTHL would involve the cumulative loss of 207 PY of direct employment and $6.4 million in annual after-tax direct employment income. The cumulative impact on indirect/induced employment would be 68 PY and $1.3 million in after-tax income. These cumulative impacts are directly proportional to the 43 percent reduction from the 1993 harvest level to the LTHL.
Timber and primary wood products that are exported from the TSA for processing elsewhere create jobs outside the TSA that would be affected by lower timber harvest levels. This includes employment at J.S. Jones Holdings Ltd. in Boston Bar, at Ainsworth's plywood mill in Savona, at other BC wood processing facilities, and at pulp and paper mills that use chips manufactured from Lillooet TSA wood.
As at the TSA level, the province-wide employment and income impacts (which include those in the TSA) are again assumed to occur in proportion to harvest changes.
Scenario One - For the first three decades, total employment (direct and indirect/induced) would be 2462 PY. Thereafter, total employment would eventually fall to 1405 PY at the long-term harvest level. Total after-tax employment income would be $66.0 million until Year 30, when it would commence declining to $36.9 million at the LTHL.
Scenario Two - Total employment would decline immediately by about 18 percent, to 2012 PY, and remain at this level for 80 years before declining to 1405 PY at the LTHL in Year 120. Total after-tax income would follow the same trend, falling to $52.8 million for the first eight decades and to $36.9 million in Year 120.
Under both scenarios, total employment and employment income would ultimately drop by about 43 percent (1057 PY and $27.7 million, respectively) before reaching sustainable levels at the LTHL.
The 1993 Lillooet TSA harvest of 636 000 m³ is estimated to have generated provincial government revenue of $20.6 million, mostly in stumpage and personal income taxes. Under Scenario One, provincial government revenues would remain at $21.0 million for three decades, then gradually decline to $11.8 million at the LTHL. Scenario Two would involve an immediate 18 percent reduction ($3.7 million), but no further declines would occur until Year 80.
Federal government revenues, mostly personal and corporate income taxes, would decline from the 1993 level of $14.2 million to $8.1 million at the LTHL.
Generally speaking, lower levels of harvesting are probably beneficial for tourism and wilderness-based recreation, but the nature of the trade-off is difficult to assess. Agriculture, mining, rail transportation, and hydroelectricity generation would be largely unaffected by the harvest level changes considered in this report.
It is estimated that about 80 percent of the job impacts could occur in the Lillooet area, which has the TSA's most forestry-dependent economy. About 20 percent of the losses would be in the Lytton area, with the other communities being largely unaffected. Under Scenario One, there would be no employment losses for 30 years, providing a long lead time to plan for future harvest reductions. Under Scenario Two, the immediate 18 percent harvest reduction would translate into the loss of about 70 forest sector jobs in Lillooet and about 15 jobs in Lytton (calculated in proportion to the harvest change).
Non-forestry job options, at least in the near future, relate mainly to a proposed co-generation plant at Lytton and to the tourism and outdoor recreation sector. While the tourism sector may generate some employment growth, it would likely replace only a portion of the jobs that would be lost under either of the two scenarios, and these would probably be more seasonal and lower paid than forest sector jobs.
Loss of employment may create some instability and uncertainty at the community level, but would have the most direct impact on the individuals and families involved. However, if TSA communities are aware of the potential loss of forestry jobs, they may be better able to consider how to deal with the situation.
The reduced harvest levels under either scenario are consistent with First Nations environmental and wildlife values. First Nations representatives who were interviewed preferred Scenario Two because it immediately reduces the amount of harvesting, which they believe is desirable until such time as land claim issues are settled.
The First Nations community, however, would be negatively affected in economic terms by lower timber harvest levels. Over 35 percent of mill employees within the area are members of First Nations, as are several independent contractors involved in harvesting and silviculture activities. Furthermore, several bands are currently seeking and developing forestry-related opportunities to create employment for their members.
Both scenarios would ultimately involve the harvesting of much of the old growth in the TSA. This would probably lead to a loss of biodiversity and declines in the populations and distributions of wildlife species dependent on old growth, but may be beneficial for relatively adaptable species and species that thrive in early successional forests. Logging roads may lead to greater recreational access, placing pressure on wildlife populations and habitat. Disturbance of the forest floor and lower levels of forest cover could lead to terrain instability and water-related impacts, such as the release of sediment, possibly impairing fish habitats and affecting community water users. Harvesting may also detract from the visual landscape.
Many of these impacts would be mitigated by timber harvesting guidelines in place in the TSA and by the Forest Practices Code (which was not incorporated into the timber supply analysis).
Scenario Two, with its immediate harvest netdown, would probably involve lower environmental risk to wildlife and fish habitat and populations, watersheds, terrain, and visual landscapes, and would preserve more flexibility for future resource management and land use initiatives. This conclusion is qualified by the fact that both scenarios share the same resource management assumptions, and that actual environmental impacts would depend mainly on where and how harvesting would occur. It should also be noted that under Scenario One harvesting would be lower after Year 50 than under Scenario Two, and the long-term level would be reached four decades earlier.
The economies of Lillooet and Lytton depend significantly on the forest industry and would be affected by reductions in TSA harvest levels. Both of the harvest forecast scenarios examined in this report would involve significant employment and income losses over the long term. Under Scenario One, impacts would be delayed for thirty years, allowing a considerable lead time to plan for adjustment. Under Scenario Two, there would be an immediate harvest reduction, followed by a long period of stability. The Forest Renewal Plan, announced in April, 1994 was not considered in this report, but may assist in offsetting some of these impacts. While the negative economic impacts on the forest sector were quantifiable, the positive impacts of lower harvesting on the environment were generally not measurable, and were therefore discussed in a qualitative way.
This analysis assumes that factors such as the land base, resource management, harvesting and processing technology, and timber prices remain constant. A change in any of these variables - increasingly likely with time - would require a re-examination of the impacts.