LAKES TSA

SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

The BC Forest Service is presently conducting a provincial timber supply review to assist the Chief Forester in setting allowable annual cut (AAC) levels. The review examines the amount of timber available for harvesting in timber supply areas (TSAs). Four documents are being prepared for each of the province's 37 TSAs: two technical documents (Timber Supply Analysis and Socio-Economic Analysis) offer information on timber supply alternatives and their social, environmental, and economic implications; a Discussion Paper summarizes the technical information and provides a focus for public discussion; and a fourth report describes the rationale behind the Chief Forester's AAC determination.

PROFILE OF THE LAKES TSA

The Lakes Timber Supply Area (TSA) encompasses 1 123 667 hectares and is one of nine TSAs in the Prince Rupert Forest Region. The Lakes Forest District Office in Burns Lake administers the TSA. The TSA occupies the easternmost portion of the Prince Rupert Forest Region, lying along the western edge of British Columbia's interior plateau.

Environmental Setting

The Lakes TSA, lying along the western edge of British Columbia's interior plateau, is characterized by gently rolling uplands and a high concentration of lakes. The TSA extends from Babine Lake in the north to the Entiako River in the south. Three major water bodies divide the Lakes TSA: Babine Lake, Francois Lake and Ootsa Lake. The TSA is adjacent to the north-east portion of Tweedsmuir Provincial Park.

The TSA falls mainly within the Sub-Boreal Spruce Biogeoclimatic Zone, the dominant zone in BC's central interior. This zone is generally found in valley bottoms up to the 1 300 metre level. In the southern reaches of the TSA, below Tetachuck Lake, is the Sub-Boreal Pine-Spruce Zone, generally found on relatively high elevation plateaus in the central interior between 850 and 1 300 metres. Small pockets in the northern and eastern regions of the TSA are within the Engelmann Spruce-Subalpine Fir Zone, found at elevations between 1 300 and 2 100 metres. Some very small areas above 2 100 metres lie in the Alpine Tundra Zone.

Important ecological factors for wildlife common to the Sub-Boreal Spruce Biogeoclimatic Zone are long snowy winters, the dominance of dense spruce, sub alpine fir and pine forests on gently rolling terrain, and abundant wetlands. Wildlife that inhabit this zone is adapted to either survive or avoid the severe winters.

Caribou use the Engelmann Spruce-Sub alpine Fir Zone as summer range and adjacent Sub-Boreal Spruce Zones for winter cover. This is particularly evident in the Tweedsmuir-Entiako caribou winter range where approximately 550 woodland caribou from the higher elevations of the northeast corner of Tweedsmuir Provincial Park migrate through the Chelaslie Corridor to lower Sub-Boreal Spruce Zones around Entiako Lake.

Other big game wildlife includes moose, mule deer, black bear, and grizzly bear. Several species, including small game, are considered of management concern.

Fisheries

Especially significant fishery systems include: Uncha Creek, Babine River/Lake, Pinkut Creek, Sutherland River and Bulkley River. Fishing of both migratory and non-migratory species is an important recreation and tourism feature of the region.

Communities and Economic Activity

Burns Lake is the largest community with a population of about 1 600 and is the supply and distribution centre for various rural areas and the smaller communities of the TSA. These smaller communities are situated along the Highway 16 corridor and in the area between Francois and Ootsa Lakes.

The total 1991 TSA population of 5 635 represented only a 0.4 percent increase over the 1986 population of 5 615. The area's labour force also grew only slightly during the same period. In 1991, the combined labour force was 2 660. The most recent region-wide unemployment rate was 9.6 percent, 1.6 percentage points above the BC average rate of 8.0 percent.

Growth in the TSA population over the last decade is projected to increase in future years. The population is expected to grow more than six percent every five years well in to the next century.

Burns Lake and the surrounding TSA are anchored by the forestry industry which supports 37% of the total employment in the TSA (27.6 percent of the labour force is directly involved in timber harvesting and processing).

The economy of the area is one of the least diversified of any area in the province.

Between 1986 and 1991, in the TSA as a whole, there were declines in the manufacturing sector labour force but this was offset by significant increases in the service sector, especially in accommodation/food/beverage service (AFB). In Burns Lake, declines in forestry processing, transportation, communication and utilities, and AFB were offset by small increases in forest harvesting, construction, trade and services other than AFB.

The Forest Industry

The Lakes TSA has an Allowable Annual Cut (AAC) of 1 500 000 m3/year. The established licensees and their AAC apportionment appear in Appendix 5. The Small Business Forest Enterprise Program has the largest allocation with 29.9 percent of the total available AAC. Babine Forest Products Company (28.7 percent), West Fraser Sawmills Limited (24.5 percent), Decker Lake Forest Products Limited (9.2 percent), Northwood Pulp and Timber Limited (3.8 percent) and L & M Lumber Limited (1.5 percent) are the Forest Licence holders of the Lakes TSA. The remainder of the AAC is made up of Woodlot Licences (1.4 percent) and Forest Service Reserve (1.0 percent).

The industry consists mainly of harvesting and processing. Direct employment of about 600 is split between the two sectors.

Recreation and Tourism

Outdoor recreation is a driving force behind tourism and contributes to quality of life for local residents. Fishing, boating and hunting are the major outdoor tourism activities.

In the Lakes TSA, low population density and remoteness lead to a relatively modest use of provincial parks when compared to visitation figures from more populated regions. Nonetheless, the forests provide a fundamental backdrop to these activities which in turn support a variety of businesses and their employees.

Usage of the 28 Ministry of Forests recreation sites in the Lakes TSA has increased 10 percent over the last two years.

Tourism supports about 9% of the employment in the TSA.

Trapping

There are approximately 111 official traplines located within the Lakes TSA. The exact proportion of aboriginal and non-aboriginal trappers is unknown.

Trapping within the Lakes TSA has been a traditional activity for aboriginal residents for many years and has important cultural significance. Trapping is also an important lifestyle choice for most non-aboriginal trappers.

Ranching

Agriculture supports about six percent of the employment in the TSA. Due to a very short growing season, agriculture has been virtually restricted to raising livestock, predominantly beef. Generally, ranchers operate on a part-time basis and supplement their income with other employment, mainly forestry.

First Nations

Six First Nations have reserve lands and traditional territory in the Lakes TSA: Nee-Tahi-Buhn Band; Burns Lake Band; Broman Lake Band; Cheslatta Carrier Nation Band; and, Lake Babine Band. The sixth, the Skin Tyee Band, officially part of the Nee-Tahi-Buhn Band, is currently seeking independence. Total membership of these bands is approximately 2 200, with on-reserve populations of 1 300. The traditional territories and land claims of these bands cover all of the TSA land base.

First Nations' have been actively involved in the forest industry. Forestry is one of the major employers of aboriginal people and some ownership positions have also evolved. The Burns Lake Native Development Corporation (BLNDC) is owned by bands in the area. BLNDC has an ownership interest in Babine Forest Products Company and Burnslake Specialty Wood Ltd. These companies together employ as many as 98 aboriginal workers. BLNDC also owns a subsidiary called Yin Waghunlee Silviculture Corporation that employs 30 aboriginal workers. Burns Lake Native Logging is a well established logging contractor that has been in business since 1976. The company employs 13 people of which nine are aboriginal.

While forestry is an important source of employment and income to First Nations people, there are other economic activities and values which can conflict with timber harvesting. Trapping is an important, traditional activity and protection of traplines is a key concern of First Nations' representatives. Aboriginal groups feel that there is not enough consultation from the forestry industry.

TIMBER SUPPLY SITUATION

Three harvest forecasts are examined in this socio-economic assessment. The forecasts were chosen to illustrate a range of social, environmental, and economic implications associated with different harvest levels. The forecasts are neither meant to suggest a preferred AAC level nor do they represent the only options that could be considered in the final AAC determination.

The Ministry of Forests' Timber Supply Branch has estimated the long-run harvest level (LRHL) of the Lakes TSA at 1 441 000 m3/year. The long-run harvest level is a 3.9 percent reduction below the current AAC. All three harvest forecasts drop to this level through different reduction schedules, as shown in Table ES-1 and Figure ES-1.

TSA IMPACTS

Impacts at the TSA level of all three harvest forecasts are summarized in Table ES-2.

Economic Development

In Scenario One, direct forest sector employment in the TSA would remain unchanged for 70 years. Indirect/induced employment would also remain unchanged for the same time period. In the eighth decade, direct forest sector employment would decline by 81 person-years (PYs). There would be a further 37 PYs of associated indirect/induced jobs lost, leading to a total decline of 118 PYs. The corresponding direct and indirect/induced after-tax employment income losses would be $2.58 million and $0.86 million, respectively. There would then be another decline in year 80 resulting in a loss of 32 PYs. The corresponding total employment income loss would be $0.95 million in year 80. At this stage, total cumulative job losses from current levels would be 150 PYs and total cumulative employment income losses would be $4.39 million. No further changes would occur for 90 years.

In Scenario Two, there would be an increase in employment immediately. Direct forest sector employment in the TSA would rise by 80 person-years above present employment levels. There would be a further increase of 36 PYs of associated indirect/induced jobs, leading to a total increase of 116 PYs. The corresponding direct and indirect/induced employment income gains would be $2.56 million and $0.84 million, respectively. No further changes would occur for 50 years when the harvest level decreases for three decades running. This would lead to job total losses of 116, 118 and 32 PYs for decades six, seven and eight, respectively. Total income losses from current levels would be $3.40 million, $3.44 million and $0.95 million, respectively. By decade eight, total cumulative job losses from current levels would be 150 and total cumulative income losses would be $4.39 million. No further changes would occur for 100 years.

In Scenario Three, direct forest sector employment in the TSA would immediately decrease by 32 person-years below present employment levels. There would be a further decrease of 15 PYs of associated indirect/induced jobs, leading to a total decrease of 47 PYs. The corresponding direct and indirect/induced employment income losses would be $1.02 million and $0.35 million, respectively, for a total of $1.37 million. No further changes would occur for 130 years.

The three harvest flows would have similar tourism and outdoor recreation economic impacts over the long 200 year timber planning horizon.

Community Impacts

There would be no community impacts associated with timber supply reductions in Scenario One in the short and medium-term as there are no reductions in the AAC until year 70.

It is difficult to judge where the employment benefits from the increased AAC in Scenario Two would accrue as it is not known how the additional 150 000 m3/year would be allocated. It is likely that Burns Lake would gain a majority of the 80 PYs of new forestry employment and 36 PYs of new indirect/induced employment while the remainder would accrue to the smaller communities in the TSA. It is unlikely that population would be significantly affected. There should be some small but positive impacts on the social well-being of these communities.

Under Scenario Three, the communities in the Lakes TSA would face impacts immediately. On the basis of the survey of licensees, approximately 80 percent of TSA harvesting personnel and a similar proportion of manufacturing employees reside in and around Burns Lake. Burns Lake would be the focal point of community impacts. Job losses could have small effects on population numbers in the short-term. In the long-term, BC's growing population and the possibility of mitigation measures should off-set population losses arising from job losses due to timber supply reductions. Scenario Three would probably not result in a major mill closure in the short-term as the reductions are moderate and local mills are operating at over 80 percent of capacity. Older or less educated forest workers in Burns Lake would have the greatest difficulty in obtaining alternative employment. They would also be less likely to relocate and may become reliant on social assistance.

First Nations Impacts

Employment of First Nations people within the Lakes TSA who work in the forest industry would mirror the general economic impacts of the three scenarios. The impact of past harvesting practices on trapping and traplines, the fisheries resource, and cultural/historical values is seen as critical to First Nations. First Nations believe Scenario Two would further conflict with these resources while Scenario Three reductions may reduce these negative impacts.

PROVINCIAL IMPACTS

The provincial impacts of the three harvest forecasts are summarized in Table ES-3.

Economic Impacts

In Scenario One, both direct and indirect/induced forest sector employment in the province would remain unchanged for 70 years. In the eighth decade, direct forest sector employment would fall off by 117 PYs. There would be a further 175 PYs of associated indirect/induced jobs lost, leading to a total decline of 292 PYs. The corresponding direct and indirect/induced employment income losses would be $3.77 million and $4.08 million, respectively. There would then be another decline in the following decade resulting in 78 PYs of total job losses. The corresponding total employment income loss would be $2.12 million. At this stage, total cumulative job losses from current levels would be 370 PYs and total cumulative employment income losses would be $9.97 million. No further changes would occur for 90 years.

In Scenario Two, there would be an increase in employment immediately. Direct forest sector employment in the province would rise by 116 person-years, above present employment levels. There would be a further increase of 174 PYs of associated indirect/induced jobs, leading to a total increase of 290 PYs. The corresponding direct and indirect/induced employment income gains would be $3.76 million and $4.06 million, respectively. No further changes would occur for 50 years when the harvest level decreases for three decades running. This would lead to job total losses of 290, 292 and 78 PYs for decades six, seven and eight, respectively. Total income losses would be $7.82 million, $7.85 million and $2.12 million, respectively. By decade eight, total cumulative job losses from current levels would be 370 PYs and total cumulative income losses from current levels would be $9.97 million. No further changes would occur for 100 years.

In Scenario Three, direct forest sector employment in the province would immediately decrease by 46 person-years, below present employment levels. There would be a further decrease of 69 PYs of associated indirect/induced jobs, leading to a total decrease of 115 jobs. The corresponding direct and indirect/induced employment income losses would be $1.48 million and $1.61 million, respectively. No further changes would occur for 130 years.

Environmental Impacts

The environmental impacts stem from activities on the timber harvesting land base in the Lakes TSA, which constitutes 56.5 percent of the TSA's total land base or 73.3 percent of the forested land base. Forty-three percent of the TSA land base cannot be harvested for one reason or another. Ongoing local resource use plans, if implemented, would mitigate some of the impacts noted below, but are not accounted for in the Timber Supply Review. Implementation could lead to future reductions in the available timber supply.

The conversion of mature forests to immature forests would result in reduced habitat, and thus reduced populations, of species dependent on old growth stands for part or all of their life cycles. Examples of such species are marten, grizzly bear, the brown creeper, pileated woodpecker, and the occipeters (forest hunting raptors).

The increase in area of early seral stage forests would potentially result in population increases of species that utilize such habitats. Moose, deer, black bear, and many small mammal populations could increase if hunting pressures do not significantly change. This would also be conditional on maintenance of the attributes of older forests throughout the landscape.

The Tweedsmuir-Entiako caribou herd is one of the few left in south and central BC and is therefore of provincial importance. The maintenance of the winter range for this herd, located south of Tetachuck Lake (in the Nechako Reservoir), and which is critical for the survival of the herd, was not included in the constraints for all the scenarios. The impact on the Tweedsmuir-Entiako herd would be significant, ranging from sharp declines in herd size to possible extirpation of the herd.

Road access into presently unroaded areas is an eventual outcome of all three scenarios. This increases the risks of negative impacts on wildlife populations which are sensitive to hunting pressures.

Forest practices impact fish habitat in many ways. Direct damage can include bank destabilization, the removal of stream side vegetation and debris jams. Measures to protect streamside and lakeshore habitats from these impacts are outlined in the Interim Regional Timber Harvesting Guidelines of the Prince Rupert Forest Region [1992] .

Government Revenue Impacts

The present AAC generates an estimated $65.06 million in annual provincial government revenues. In Scenario One, the first harvest reduction in decade eight results in a loss of $6.51 million/year in revenue. The reduction in decade nine results in a loss of $1.73 million annually. No further changes would occur for 90 years.

In Scenario Two, the immediate increase in the harvest level increases provincial government annual revenue by $6.50 million. Declines of $6.50 million/year, $6.51 million/year and $1.73 million/year are experienced for decades six, seven and eight, respectively. No further changes would occur for 100 years.

In Scenario Three, annual provincial government revenues decrease immediately by $2.57 million. No further changes would occur for 130 years.

Environmental Account

• reduced populations of old growth dependent species
• increased population of early seral stage inhabitants
• decline in overall biodiversity
• sharp decline of Tweedsmuir-Entiako caribou herd

Scenaario Two

• fastest reduction to populations of old growth dependent species
• increased population of early seral stage inhabitants
• decline in overall biodiversity
• sharp decline of Tweedsmuir-Entiako caribou herd