This report is part of the province-wide Timber Supply Review being carried out by the Ministry of Forests (MOF). The impact assessment presented in this report does not promote or recommend any particular harvest level for the Kamloops TSA. The Chief Forester will determine the AAC after considering many factors in addition to the results contained within this report.
This report focuses on the base case harvest forecast developed by the Kamloops TSA Timber Supply Analysis report. A glossary and a discussion of the derivation of the estimates used in this report are included in detailed appendices at the end of the report.
The base case from the Kamloops TSA Timber Supply Analysis report is referred to as the base timber harvest forecast in this report. The socio-economic implications associated with this forecast are identified.
The base timber harvest forecast is assessed within a "multiple-account" framework. Impacts are reviewed within the framework of five accounts, two of which are quantitative in nature (employment and government revenues), while the other three accounts (community, First Nations, and environment) are qualitative.
The Kamloops TSA has a population of approximately 90 450 (in 1991), the majority of which, 82 500, live in the southern portion of the TSA (the Kamloops area).
Within the boundaries of the Kamloops TSA are ten First Nations Bands. Seven of these Bands are affiliated with the Secwepemc (Shuswap) Nation Tribal Council, two Bands are affiliated with the Nlaka'pamux Nation Tribal Council, and there is one independent Band (the Little Shuswap Band).
An additional eight Bands are located outside the Kamloops TSA but maintain traditional interests inside the TSA.
The biophysical components of the TSA includes several ecosystems, important aquatic systems, and several rare plants and wildlife.
The TSA contains eight biogeoclimatic zones. There is an estimated 1 800 lakes in the TSA and at least 40 salmon producing streams.
The Kamloops TSA represents a total land area of 2 117 718 hectares, of which 1 441 117 hectares are classified as Crown forest lands.
The current allowable annual cut (AAC) in the Kamloops TSA is 2 393 180 cubic metres per year.
The AAC apportionment does not provide a complete picture of the fibre supply in the Kamloops TSA for the major licensees. Additional timber volumes are obtained from a variety of other sources including: Tree Farm Licences, Timber Licences, private land inside the TSA, Crown lands outside the TSA, and private lands outside the TSA.
Eight major licensees, Ainsworth Lumber Co. Ltd., Bell Pole Co. Ltd., Gilbert Smith Forest Products Ltd., International Forest Products Ltd., Riverside Forest Products Ltd., Slocan Forest Products Ltd., Tolko Industries Ltd., and Weyerhaeuser Canada Ltd. operate in the Kamloops TSA. The TSA also has several smaller processors as well.
Figure ES-1 illustrates the harvest forecast for
the base timber harvest forecast. The harvest forecast maintains
the current harvest level for the first two decades before declining
at a rate of nine percent over decades three and four, reaching
the long-term harvest level of 1 958 000 cubic metres in decade
five.
The current harvest of 2 393 180 cubic metres creates approximately 1 675 person-years (PYs) of direct forestry employment annually inside the TSA. Additional direct forestry employment created outside the TSA brings the total direct forestry employment associated with the current harvest to approximately 2 180 PYs annually.
The direct forestry employment associated with the current harvest creates additional indirect and induced employment. Inside the TSA, an additional 1 075 PYs of employment would be supported by the current harvesting activity bringing the total (direct and indirect) employment to 2 750 PYs.
At the provincial level (including TSA and non-TSA), indirect and induced employment created by the current harvest is approximately 3 270 PYs annually. This brings the total employment associated with the Kamloops TSA to approximately 5 450 PYs.
In addition, the TSA harvest generates significant provincial and federal government revenues. At current harvest levels, forestry operations generate approximately $82.5 million in provincial government revenues, and a further $38.2 in federal government revenues.
Under the base timber harvest forecast the current harvest would be maintained for the first two decades. In decades three through five the harvest would decline by 435 180 cubic metres. It is during this period that employment, employment income and government revenue impacts would occur. Table ES-1 summarizes the employment, employment income, and government revenue impacts associated with the base timber harvest forecast.
The first community impacts would not occur until twenty years from the present. Between decade three and decade five the timber harvest would decline by 435 180 cubic metres. It would be during this period that community adjustment would occur.
First Nations communities in the Kamloops TSA have many diverse concerns and issues associated with forestry activity in their traditional lands.
The policy of the Secwepemc Nation Council is that British Columbia should avoid alienation or potential degradation of natural resources in Secwepemc Nation territory.
The independent Little Shushap Band is concerned about preservation of traditional lands and cultural sites, as well as distribution and access to timber for First Nations.
The main environmental implication of the base timber harvest forecast is the narrowing of the forest age class distribution. Over the next 250 years the distribution of stand ages is forecast to become more even, resulting in approximately equal areas at ages up to about 120 years. Populations of species that depend on mature forests may decline.
In addition, several other environmental issues have
been identified including road impacts, water quality and habitat
alterations.
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Employment and Employment Income
Harvest Level (m3) Direct Employment (PYs/year)
Total Employment (PYs/year) Direct After-Tax Income ($1994 million/year) Total After-Tax Income ($1994 million/year) |
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| Government Revenues ($1994 million/year)
Total Provincial Revenues Total Federal Revenues |
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Community impacts do not occur until twenty years into the future. Currently, the major processing facilities in the area are highly dependent on TSA fibre, and will likely remain so. Future harvest level reductions will likely have the greatest impact in those communities where these processing facilities are located.
First Nations communities in the Kamloops TSA have many diverse concerns and issues associated with forestry activity. The policy of the Secwepemc Nation Tribal Council is that British Columbia should avoid alienation or potential degradation of natural resources in Secwepemc Nation territory. Secwepemc people do not feel comfortable with the level of forest harvesting in the TSA and the detrimental impacts to the environment which have occurred in the past. The independent Little Shuswap Band is concerned about preservation of traditional lands and cultural sites, as well as distribution and access to timber for First Nations.
The main environmental implication of the base timber
harvest forecast is the narrowing the forest age class distribution.
Over time the next 250 years the distribution of stand ages is
forecast to become gradually more even, resulting in approximately
equal areas at ages up to about 120 years. Populations of species
that depend on mature forests may decline. In addition, several
other environmental issues have been identified, including road
impacts, water quality and habitat alterations.