The Bulkley Timber Supply Area (TSA), located in the northwestern portion of the British Columbia interior, is one of eight TSAs in the Prince Rupert Forest Region. Its boundaries correspond with those of the Bulkley Forest District and encompass an area of approximately 736 000 hectares (see Figures 2.1 and 2.2).
This report assesses major socio-economic impacts associated with three harvest forecasts presented in the Bulkley TSA Timber Supply Analysis Report.
The socio-economic impacts are examined using a "multiple accounts" framework. Impacts are categorized and defined according to three TSA accounts (Economic Development, Community, and First Nations Community) and three provincial accounts (Economic Development, Government Revenues, and Environment).
In 1991 the Bulkley TSA had a population of 10 900. The main communities, Smithers (pop. 5 029), Telkwa (pop. 960), and Moricetown (pop. 650), are located along the Bulkley River in the southern portion of the TSA. Educational opportunities, community services, and economic development initiatives in the TSA are described in Section 2.
First Nations communities in the TSA include Moricetown and Fort Babine (pop. 135). A profile of First Nations communities including land claims, economic activities, and community values is presented in Section 2.6.
The two main biogeoclimatic zones in the TSA are Sub-Boreal Spruce (42 % of the land area) and Engelmann Spruce-Subalpine Fir (35 %).
The area within the Bulkley Valley is important for maintaining biodiversity in the TSA and is currently under pressure from various land use activities. The main concern for biodiversity in the TSA is the change in forest structure resulting from timber harvesting.
The TSA has several high quality fisheries, including the Babine River, the Zymoetz (Copper) River, the Bulkley River, and Babine Lake. The most important areas for fish habitat are tributaries to these waters.
Wildlife species in the TSA include populations of grizzly bear, goat, and caribou. Currently, the Telkwa caribou herd is under stress for reasons that may include human activity and predation by wolves.
Protected areas in the TSA include three provincial parks, as well as the Babine Mountains Recreation Area, the Babine River Wilderness Area, and the Telkwa Wildlife Management Area.
A variety of recreation activities are enjoyed throughout the area, both by residents and visitors to the region.
Forestry, agriculture, mining, and tourism are the main economic activities in the Bulkley TSA.
Two major forest companies have sawmills in Smithers. A native-owned sawmill and several smaller sawmills are located elsewhere in the TSA.
Agriculture, including mixed farming and cattle ranching occur throughout the area.
Summer and winter tourism activity, mining equipment supply and service, guiding, and trapping round out the list of economic activities.
Under current management practices, approximately 278 000 hectares in the Bulkley TSA are available for timber harvesting. One quarter of this area has special cover requirements to account for biodiversity and integrated resource management, including wildlife habitat and travel corridors, water conservation, aesthetics, and recreation values. The remaining area is managed for integrated resource management with an emphasis on resource development.
The predominant merchantable species include balsam mixtures, spruce, lodgepole pine, and a small amount of hemlock.
The current allowable annual cut (AAC) is 895 000 cubic metres, the majority of which is apportioned between major licensees (48.5 %), the Small Business Forest Enterprise Program (21.0 %), and temporary licences (27.4 %). The temporary licences will expire by 1996.
Sawlog quality timber represents 59 % of mature timber volumes. However, there are also large volumes of timber classified as marginal sawlog (24 %) or pulplog (17 %).
In the past two years, 87 percent of volumes harvested in the TSA were sawlog quality, seven percent were marginal sawlogs, and six percent were pulplogs.
The harvest forecast for the TSA over the next 20 years indicates that the timber profile will consist of 39 percent pulp and marginal sawlog and 61 percent sawlog. This indicates that the log species profile presently harvested is not sustainable in the short-term.
Most of the timber harvested in the TSA is processed by local mills, with wood chips being shipped out of the TSA for further processing.
The current AAC is estimated to support 645 PY of direct employment in harvesting, transportation, silviculture, and processing. The AAC also contributes 157 PY of related employment in pulp and paper mills in Kitimat and Prince Rupert.
Three harvest forecasts from the Bulkley TSA Timber Supply Analysis report were chosen to determine a range of possible socio-economic impacts. These harvest forecasts are meant for discussion purposes and do not imply that a particular harvest level is preferred. Figure ES.1 shows the harvest forecasts examined. The timber supply analysis estimated the long-term harvest level to be 424 000 cubic metres, which is 53 percent less than the current AAC.
Scenario 1, the base case from the timber supply analysis report, would maintain harvest at current AAC levels for two decades. Starting in the third decade, harvest would decline by approximately 9 percent per decade until the long-term harvest level is reached in year 90.
Scenario 2 approximates the effects on harvest levels after the expiry of existing temporary licences. Harvest would continue at current AAC levels for two years. Thereafter, a harvest level of 650 000 cubic metres per year could be sustained for seven decades before declining to the long-term harvest level in Year 110.
Scenario 3 illustrates the impacts associated with a forecast
where the initial harvest level falls in between the starting
levels of Scenarios 1 and 2. This is represented by a sensitivity
analysis from the TSAR which assumes a five-pass harvest system.
Harvest would be 755 000 cubic metres per year for four decades
and then would drop 8 percent per decade, reaching the long-term
harvest level in Year 100.
The TSA impacts of each scenario are summarized in Table ES.1 and compared in the following discussion. Detailed results for each scenario are presented separately in the main report (see Sections 6.1, 6.2, and 6.3).
Over the first two decades (Years 1-20), employment and employment income under Scenario 1 would remain at current levels. Scenario 2 would have the most severe impact during this period. Scenario 3 short-term employment and employment income impacts would be more moderate than those experienced under Scenario 2. Over the next three decades (Years 21-50), the employment and employment income impacts of the three scenarios would converge. Employment and employment income levels for Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 would decrease approximately 23, 25, and 20 percent below current levels respectively.
Scenario 1 | |||||||
| Year | |||||||
| Harvest ('000 m³/year) | |||||||
| Employment | Direct | 645 | 645 | 585 | 481 | 306 | |
| (PY/year) | Indirect | 437 | 437 | 397 | 326 | 207 | |
| Total | 1 082 | 1 082 | 982 | 807 | 513 | ||
| Labour Income | Direct | $20.0 | $20.0 | $18.1 | $14.9 | $9.5 | |
| ($1992 millions/year) | Indirect | 9.2 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 4.4 | |
| Total | 29.2 | 29.2 | 26.4 | 21.8 | 13.9 | ||
| Impacts would be deferred until decade three, allowing TSA communities time to plan mitigation strategies. | |||||||
| Least addresses aboriginal concerns related to land claims and preservation of resources having traditional and spiritual values;
Lower negative impact on aboriginal employment in the forestry sector in the short-term. | |||||||
Scenario 2 | |||||||
| Year | |||||||
| Harvest ('000 m³/year) | |||||||
| Employment | Direct | 645 | 468 | 468 | 468 | 306 | |
| (PY/year) | Indirect | 437 | 318 | 318 | 318 | 207 | |
| Total | 1 082 | 786 | 786 | 786 | 513 | ||
| Labour Income | Direct | $20.0 | $14.5 | $14.5 | $14.5 | $9.5 | |
| ($1992 millions/year) | Indirect | 9.2 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 4.4 | |
| Total | 29.2 | 21.2 | 21.2 | 21.2 | 13.9 | ||
| Impacts would be the most severe and occur almost immediately. | |||||||
| Best addresses aboriginal concerns related to land claims and preservation of resources having traditional and spiritual values;
Higher negative impact on aboriginal employment in the forestry sector in the short-term. | |||||||
Scenario 3 | ||||||
| Year | ||||||
| Harvest ('000 m³/year) | ||||||
| Employment | Direct | 544 | 544 | 544 | 501 | 306 |
| (PY/year) | Indirect | 369 | 369 | 369 | 340 | 207 |
| Total | 913 | 913 | 913 | 841 | 513 | |
| Labour Income | Direct | $16.9 | $16.9 | $16.9 | $15.5 | $9.5 |
| ($1992 millions/year) | Indirect | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 |
| Total | 24.6 | 24.6 | 24.6 | 22.6 | 13.9 | |
| Impacts would be immediate, but may be less severe than Scenario 2 due to fewer job losses. | ||||||
| Somewhat addresses aboriginal concerns related to land claims and preservation of resources having traditional and spiritual values;
Impact on aboriginal employment in the forestry sector would fall in between the impacts of Scenarios 1 and 2. | ||||||
Scenario 1 would have fewer adverse impacts than Scenarios 2 and 3. Impacts would not be felt until the third decade, giving communities an opportunity to develop strategies for dealing with job losses and to mitigate some of the impacts.
Employment and employment income losses under Scenario 3 are not as extreme as Scenario 2 impacts and, compared to Scenario 1, Scenario 3 may provide somewhat more flexibility for future land-use planning processes.
The lower harvest levels under Scenario 2 would best address First Nations concerns related to land claims and preservation of resources important to traditional and spiritual activities.
The higher harvest levels under Scenario 1 may help ensure the viability of Kyah Forest Products Ltd.
A summary of provincial impacts is provided in Table ES.2.
Impacts on provincial employment and employment income would reflect the TSA impacts described above. Scenario 1 would minimize short-term impacts and Scenario 2 would lead to the most severe short-term impacts. Scenario 3 impacts would fall in between those of Scenarios 1 and 2. By the end of the fifth decade there would be little difference between the three scenarios.
Government revenues would be affected in a similar manner. Under Scenario 1, annual government revenues would remain unchanged for the first two decades. Under Scenario 2, they would drop by $5.4 million in Year 3, to $14.5 million, and would remain at that level until Year 60.
All scenarios examined involve a decline from the current AAC to the long-term harvest level, and therefore offer greater benefits to the environment than continuation of current harvest levels.
All three scenarios incorporate important environmental management guidelines designed to protect habitat, fish and wildlife, and wilderness recreation opportunities. The benefits associated with these guidelines may have more important long-term implications for the environment than the absolute differences in scenario harvest levels examined in this report.
The main difference between scenarios from an environmental perspective results from the timing of harvest reductions.
Harvesting of older forest proceeds would occur most rapidly under Scenario 1. The age class distribution of the forest would narrow and populations of species that depend on mature forests may decline. Also, Scenario 1, with its higher harvest levels in the short-term, may reduce flexibility for addressing future habitat, fish and wildlife, and recreation requirements.
Scenario 2 would be preferred from an environmental perspective due to the lower harvest rate in early decades. The harvesting of older forest would proceed more slowly under this scenario. The lower harvest rates would allow greater flexibility in future land use planning processes.
The Bulkley TSA Timber Supply Analysis indicates that the current AAC could be continued for two decades before dropping to the long-term harvest level. This would allow TSA communities time to examine alternate resource management plans in the TSA. Impacts of the recently announced Forest Renewal Plan have not been included in this analysis. The Forest Renewal Plan will focus on sustaining forestry jobs and communities.
The main short-term resource management issues in the TSA are the expiration of temporary licences, First Nations resource management concerns, and the changing harvest profile.
Harvesting in the TSA must shift from spruce into pine and hemlock stands, and from high quality sawlogs into marginal sawlog and pulplog stands. Pacific Inland Resources is currently upgrading machinery to increase processing efficiency. Kyah Forest Products Ltd. is already experiencing difficulty in obtaining quality logs for its operation, and it can be expected that these difficulties will increase given wood profiles in the TSA.
Impacts from changes in volumes associated with temporary licences would depend on the ability of licensees to supplement their TSA apportionment with logs from other sources (SBFEP purchases, private purchases, purchases from other TSAs).
First Nations groups have recently expressed concern over a number of resource management issues in the TSA and desire a formal commitment from government regarding consultation on resource development. Specifically, the Wet'suwet'en are seeking an assured log supply for Kyah Forest Products Ltd.