The licensee analysis states that it identified a discrepancy in the size of the timber harvesting land while reproducing the Forest Service land base netdown procedures. According to the licensee analysis, the timber harvesting land base should be 5 per cent larger, thereby permitting an initial harvest of 1 122 000 cubic metres. This is 5 per cent higher than that indicated in the Forest Service analysis.
The licensee analysis presents some alternative interpretations of timber supply analysis inputs and the impact each of these have on the timber supply forecast. These changes include:
• redefining preservation visual quality objective areas as retention visual quality objective areas
• increasing the maximum disturbance percentages for visual quality areas
• reducing the regeneration delay to three years for all species
• using managed stand yield tables for the Timber Licence reversion areas
Using all of these inputs and the corrected land base, the licensee analysis indicates an initial harvest level of 1 282 300 cubic metres per year for the first decade is possible. This is 23 per cent below the current conventional harvest level of 1 658 770 cubic metres per year. The harvest level then declines by 10 per cent per decade for three decades to a low of 934 800 cubic metres per year. It then rises in decade 16 to the long term level of 992 900 cubic metres per year.
The licensee analysis indicates that further increases in timber supply could be possible if the following factors are proven to be feasible:
• inclusion of a portion of the Klinaklini watershed in the timber harvesting land base
• a 10 per cent increase in the area considered operable
• adjustment for negative bias in old-growth site productivity estimates.
The critique indicates that the cumulative impact of adjusting the above inputs and factors would be a 15 per cent reduction in the initial harvest level from the current AAC.
With the exceptions of the land base correction and the suggested changes to analysis inputs, recommendations were not provided to improve the data, assumptions or computer model used in the Forest Service analysis.
