The critique of the Forest Service timber supply analysis completed for the Kootenay Lake Forestry Association differed from the Forest Service analysis because:
• new managed stand yield tables were used which forecast more rapid growth for new forests that are established by reforestation after harvesting compared to historical growth rates of naturally established forests
• some of the forested land that was not included in the timber harvesting land base was included in the evaluation of the impacts of the forest cover requirements which restrict timber harvesting to maintain defined forest conditions for non-timber resources
These differences resulted in an increased forecast of timber supply compared to the Forest Service analysis. The base case forecast in the Forest Service analysis indicated an initial harvest level of 803,000 cubic meters per year for 10 years, followed by a decline over 60 years to a long-term timber supply level of 490,000 cubic meters per year. The timber industry critique indicated a starting harvest level of 810,000 cubic metres per year was possible for 10 years, followed by a decline over 60 years to a long-term timber supply level of 656,000 cubic metres per year.
The Kootenay Lake Forestry Association presented the results of their analysis to forest workers and local governments in the area, many of whom made reference to this analysis in their submissions. Fifty respondents suggested the Forest Service analysis was out of date, 17 questioned why the analysis for the Kootenay Lake Timber Supply area had used a different approach than analyses being completed by the Forest Service for other parts of British Columbia; 16 stated they supported the Kootenay Lake Forestry Association analysis. Of these respondents, 39 felt if there was to be an allowable annual cut reduction, it should be less than 10 per cent in the first decade; 43 felt that any reductions should be absorbed by the Forest Service Reserve, the portion of the allowable annual cut that is not allocated for harvesting except in emergency situations such as for pest control or to salvage timber burned in wildfires. In the Kootenay Lake Timber Supply Area, 15.4 per cent of the allowable annual cut (138,820 cubic metres per year) is currently allocated to the Forest Service Reserve.
However, other respondents indicated the Forest Service base case forecast is too optimistic. Thirty-six respondents indicated harvest restrictions to accommodate old growth forests, wildlife, biodiversity, visual quality, sensitive soils, and other values were not adequately accounted for in the Forest Service analysis. Concern was also expressed about the timber supply impacts of poor survival and growth of planted trees and the impacts of diseases such as root rot. Many felt our present knowledge was insufficient to effectively manage forest ecosystems, that accurate prediction of the future was not possible, and that harvest rates should be conservative in light of this uncertainty. One respondent suggested the Forest Service Reserve should be used to offset the impacts of expected new wilderness areas.
Although perspectives regarding the immediate situation differed, several common themes emerged. Most recognized that a reduction in the allowable annual cut was necessary. As well, both forest workers and environmentalists repeatedly stressed the importance of quality of life, their love for the area, and their desire to continue to live here.
Some respondents pointed out that the historical harvest rate has been about two-thirds of the present allowable annual cut, which suggested to them that the current allowable annual cut is too high.
