In the process of conducting an independent timber supply analysis, the consultant incorporated different land base and productivity assumptions from those used in the Forest Service analysis. These include:
• a slight increase to the timber harvesting land base by including 540 hectares designated as recreation reserves
• an additional increase of 1,626 hectares following a reduction in the area removed from the timber harvesting land base as economically or environmentally infeasible to harvest
• the use of updated forest productivity information
The changes to the above three factors result in an increase in the predicted timber supply levels.
The licensees' analysis then examines the impact of the following factors and compares them with the Forest Service analysis:
More refined analysis units
Refining the analysis units (subdividing them by age range), combined with a recalculation of minimum harvestable ages, produces no significant impact on timber supply.
Future productivity estimates
When the timber productivity expected from sites currently occupied by older forests is adjusted upward, a marginal increase in timber supply results.
Reductions for ecosystem networks
In the Forest Service analysis, the timber harvesting land base was reduced by eight per cent to provide for forest ecosystem networks that connect important habitats throughout the timber supply area. The licensees' analysis cites the timber supply impacts of this approach and asserts it does not consider the dynamics of forest development.
The licensees' analysis proposes that the eight per cent reduction be eliminated and that networks instead be subject to the same forest cover constraints that apply to moderately sensitive visual zones—partial retention. This would significantly increase the short- and long-term timber supply, according to the licensees' analysis.
Ungulate winter range
The licensees' analysis maintains the forest cover requirements in this zone—that no more than 33 per cent of the timber harvesting land base can have stands less than 15 metres tall at any time—have a significant negative impact on timber supply and do not meet habitat objectives. By proposing different requirements and using a different model, the licensees' analysis is able to increase timber supply considerably.
Steep slopes
In the Forest Service analysis, sites considered too steep for harvesting were removed from the timber harvesting land base. The licensees' analysis proposes a modified approach, which increases the land base by about three per cent.
Non-merchantable forest types
Rather than removing all of these types from the timber harvesting land base, as was done in the Forest Service analysis, the licensees' analysis proposes a modified removal on slopes less than 30 per cent. This increases the land base by about two per cent and has a slight impact on timber supply.
Regeneration delay
The Forest Service analysis uses a regeneration delay of four years for planted areas and seven years for naturally regenerated areas. The licensees' analysis recommends two and five years, respectively.
When all the above changes are combined, the licensees' analysis states the short- and long-term timber supply is significantly increased compared to that indicated in the Forest Service base case.
