A critique of the Socio-Economic Analysis was prepared by the Interior Lumber Manufacturers’ Association. It makes the following comments:
• the analysis underestimates the employment related to timber harvested from the Boundary Timber Supply Area by a total of 231 jobs province-wide
• a Grand Forks fibreboard plant's employment should be included since 35 per cent of its fibre comes from local mills. This amounts to 24 direct manufacturing jobs. The assumption in the analysis that this manufacturer has other fibre sources and would be unaffected by timber supply changes is untested
• Forest Service employment should be included (40 local and 13 regional staff positions). The critique asserts staff size is directly related to the level of harvesting and reforestation
• these 77 direct jobs excluded in the analysis lead to a total of 231 jobs province-wide when a multiplier of 3 is applied to account for indirect employment. The Interior Lumber Manufacturers’ Association critique maintains the use of this multiplier, rather than the 2.5 used in the Forest Service analysis, is justified and is supported in a study by the Ministry of Finance
• lost forestry jobs cannot be "offset" by re-opening the slag plant in Grand Forks. The overall number of jobs in the area will still be lower than if no forestry jobs were lost
• lost income is understated because the loss of non-cash benefits (medical and dental plans, pension benefits, etc.) is not included
• the estimates of employment related to tourism expenditures appear unrealistically high. The Interior Lumber Manufacturers’ Association critique questions the formula used in the analysis, by which one person-year of employment is created for every $22,727 of tourism expenditure
• the future loss of stumpage revenue to the province is underestimated because the analysis does not account for the new stumpage formula that nearly doubles the average stumpage rate
• federal impacts of changes in timber supply need to be expanded beyond lost federal income tax to include job losses and related economic impacts
• the statement in the analysis that employment impacts may be overstated could just as easily read that impacts may be understated. As conditions change in neighbouring timber supply areas, the number of jobs could decline in any one area as the competition for wood increases
In another submission a respondent declares jobs will inevitably be lost because the reduction in the size of the working forest means a significant reduction in provincial revenues, and therefore the funds for forest renewal won't be available.
