The deciduous base case forecast for the Fort St. John Timber Supply Area is based on forest practices being implemented in 1994 when the analysis was initiated and meets the requirements outlined earlier for the analysis. It indicates the current allowable annual cut of 915,000 cubic metres per year can be maintained for 20 years (Figure 11) before declining by 10 per cent per decade over 30 years to the long-term sustainable level of 635,000 cubic metres per year. (TSAR page 22)
Figure 11. Deciduous base case timber supply forecast
Two factors interacted to create this forecast:
• reduced timber volume estimates for existing forests
A significant reduction in estimated timber yields from existing deciduous forests is the most important factor resulting in the forecasted reduction in the deciduous timber supply. Current estimates are approximately 20 per cent below estimates used in past analyses. This reduction primarily results from the use of updated inventory information to estimate forest growth.
• reduced timber harvesting land base
The area of deciduous forest estimated to be available and suitable for harvesting has been reduced from the previous estimates used in the 1990 deciduous timber supply analysis. This area reduction is partly the result of applying estimates of timber merchantability based on actual harvesting in similar forests in the Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area.
