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It is important to note that the timber supply forecasts presented in the analysis report and in this paper do not represent either a short-term allowable annual cut determination or a long-term strategy to adjust harvest levels. The base case forecasts and the critical factors described below are part of the information the chief forester will use to determine the allowable annual cut for the next five years. |
To complete the timber supply analysis for the Fort St. John Timber Supply Area, a computer model was used to produce base case* timber supply forecasts for the coniferous and deciduous components of the timber harvesting land base. These forecasts were required to meet each of the following conditions:
• maintain the current allowable annual cut as long as possible without compromising future timber supply
• if the current allowable annual cut could be achieved for the forecast period of 250 years, timber supply levels were increased until shortfalls resulted in some decades
In addition to the base case forecasts, tests were completed during the timber supply analysis to identify which factors had the greatest effect on the timber supply forecasts. Also, since September 1994 when the data was finalized for the timber supply analysis, Forest Service staff have continued to collect information for some of the factors in the analysis, resulting in possible improvements. These critical factors are discussed in this section for both the coniferous and deciduous components. Other factors were tested and are discussed in the Fort St. John Timber Supply Analysis Report (pages 29-43) but were not considered critical to this review and therefore are not included in this discussion paper.
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The chief forester must carefully evaluate this information to determine the allowable annual cut and identify where improved information is needed for the next timber supply review. We encourage you to do the same. |
