On the provincial level, total direct and indirect employment losses resulting from the base case timber supply forecast are projected to be 637 person-years immediately (based on the estimate that 1.5 person years of additional employment are created in the province for each direct person-year). This estimate includes employment within and outside the timber supply area. Over the long term, as the timber supply level declines to the projected long-term level, a total of 1 875 person-years of employment may be lost. (SEA page 72)
Outside the timber supply area, these impacts would be felt most strongly on southern Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland because mills in these areas rely on wood from the Strathcona Timber Supply Area. Although the predicted reduction in the timber supply is equivalent to the supply for one sawmill, the impacts of this reduction may be dispersed among a number of mills. (SEA page 84)
It should be noted that these estimates do not account for the restabilization of employment through other sources of income or income support programs, or through new job creation. These impacts would also not all occur at the same time.
Provincial government revenues, including stumpage and taxes, are projected to decline by $6.2 million per year for the first 10 years and by $17.7 million annually when the long-term timber supply level is reached. These estimates do not include expected increased stumpage revenues from the recently announced Forest Renewal Plan.
