Provincially, total employment reductions resulting from a 35 per cent reduction in the allowable annual cut are estimated to be 2,094 person-years, including the reductions in the Port McNeill District. This estimate includes 837 person-years of direct forestry employment and 1,257 person-years of spin-off employment. The Socio-Economic Analysis estimates a reduction in timber supply from the current average harvest level to the base case forecast would result in the loss of 385 direct and 576 spin-off person-years of employment. (SEA page 58)
It is expected that the majority of these employment impacts would occur in Campbell River and the South Island/Lower Mainland, and that they would not occur simultaneously. As within the local area, some employment adjustments may also have already occurred as a result of the reduced actual harvest level. (SEA page 58)
Although the Socio-Economic Analysis predicts that employment impacts will be directly related to timber supply changes, impacts may be greater or less depending on industrial adjustments such as changes in the number of shifts in a mill, or closure of a an operation. The timber supply ‘thresholds’ that prompt these changes are difficult to predict because of the many factors that influence these business decisions. Although the predicted reduction in the allowable annual cut is equivalent to the timber supply for one or two sawmills, the impacts of this reduction may be dispersed among a number of the mills in the South Island and Lower Mainland areas which process most of the timber from the Kingcome Timber Supply Area.
Most of the job impacts from an allowable annual cut reduction in the Kingcome Timber Supply Area would occur outside the Port McNeill Forest District because much of the harvesting is done by non-local crews and about 90 per cent of the timber leaves the timber supply area for processing elsewhere. Of the estimated provincial forest sector employment loss of 837 person-years, about 19 per cent would occur mainly in the Campbell River area, and 68 per cent would occur in the South Island and Lower Mainland area. Although communities in these areas are generally larger, more diversified, and faster growing than those in the North Island, a large number of individuals and their families could be affected. This impact could be even more pronounced when spin-off employment is considered, because there are relatively more of these jobs created outside the timber supply area (SEA pages 63-67). Initiatives to restabilize employment through other sources of income or new jobs will be created through the Forest Jobs Commissioner and the Forest Renewal Plan.
Provincial government revenues, including stumpage and taxes, are projected to decline by $24.5 million per year if the allowable annual cut is reduced by 35 per cent, consistent with the base case forecast. The Socio-Economic Analysis estimates a $11.1 million per year reduction in revenues with this reduction compared to the average annual harvest level. (SEA page 60)
