To complete the timber supply analysis for the 100 Mile House Timber Supply Area, a computer model was used to produce a base case* timber supply forecast that met all of the following conditions:
• the current allowable annual cut was maintained for as long as possible, or if this was not possible, the highest initial harvest level was identified, then
• if significant reductions were required, the forecasted harvest level was reduced by eight to 12 per cent per decade until the long-term timber supply level was reached, and
• the timber supply level was maintained at or above the predicted long-term level
The base case forecast for the 100 Mile House Timber Supply Area indicates the present allowable annual cut of 1.237 million cubic metres per year could be maintained for approximately 30 years. A 2.8 per cent reduction is then predicted to reach the long-term timber supply level of 1.202 million cubic metres per year. (Figure 6)
Figure 6 Base case timber supply forecast
