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It is important to note that the timber supply forecasts presented in the analysis report and this paper do not represent either a short-term allowable annual cut determination or a long-term strategy to adjust harvests to lower levels. These forecasts are part of the information that will be used by the chief forester to determine the allowable annual cut for the next five years. |
The base case forecast* documented in the Timber Supply Analysis Report shows that, given the timber harvesting land base and current management practices, the present allowable annual cut of 2,615,000 cubic metres can be maintained until 2010 (figure 3). Beginning in 2011, the timber supply is projected to decrease by 10 per cent per decade until the long-term timber supply level of 2,022,000 cubic metres per year is reached by 2030. (TSAR page 13)
Figure 3. Base case timber supply forecast
The mountain pine beetle epidemic in the southern portion of the Okanagan Timber Supply Area resulted in a temporary allowable annual cut increase from 1987 to 1992. From 1990 to 1993 this increase was 200,000 cubic metres and in 1993 it was 189,000 cubic metres. (TSAR page 20)
Figure 4 illustrates how an elevated level of harvest for the first 10 years, to salvage mountain pine beetle-infested timber, could affect the timber supply forecast. If, to combat the mountain pine beetle, the harvest level is maintained at the maximum possible without allowing future harvest levels to drop below the long-term level, then an increase in the harvest in the first decade to 2,809,000 cubic metres per year is possible. After this, harvest levels must be reduced by 10 per cent per decade to meet the long-term level by 2020, 10 years earlier than in the base case. (TSAR page 29)
Figure 4. Impact of elevated harvest level to salvage mountain pine beetle-infested timber
