• Aboriginal issues
In the base case, current harvest levels are maintained for the next 60 years. However, this may be difficult to maintain given the amount of land under consideration in aboriginal treaty negotiations. (SEA pages 7-10)
All of the North Coast Timber Supply Area is considered "lands under claims" by First Nations. The Nisga’a are currently involved in treaty negotiations, and the Tsimshian and Haisla are preparing to enter negotiations.
The Nisga’a, as part of their treaty negotiation process, have an Interim Protection Measures Agreement with the federal and provincial governments. This agreement does not specifically state that the Nisga’a have a role in the timber supply review process in the North Coast Timber Supply Area. However, in keeping with the spirit and intent of this agreement, the Forest Service has invited the Nisga’a to write an appendix to this document, which you will find at the end of this paper.
Some impact on the timber harvesting land base can be expected in the future from treaty settlements. In addition, aboriginal communities in the timber supply area are interested in gaining greater access to forestry employment by participating in silvicultural and harvesting activities.
• Environmental issues
Reductions in the amount of old-growth forests through timber harvesting is an issue throughout British Columbia. Currently 83 per cent of the North Coast Timber Supply Area timber harvesting land base is older than the minimum harvest age. Under the base case scenario, the existing old growth in the timber harvesting land base is forecasted to continue to decline over the next 200 years. Both within and outside the current timber harvesting land base there are areas that are under consideration as representative examples of natural diversity as part of the Protected Areas Strategy. These representative examples include areas of old growth forest.
BC Environment supports many of the current management practices under way in the North Coast Timber Supply Area to protect fish and wildlife habitats. Efforts have been made to identify critical habitat types (such as old growth, wetlands and riparian areas) (SEA page 33) and to link them in a system of reserves called forest ecosystem networks.
Environmental concerns related to visual quality and aesthetics are important, as they affect the tourism industry. These concerns are addressed in the base case. (SEA page 33)
Forest industry compliance with the British Columbia Coastal Fisheries/Forestry Guidelines has been a concern in the North Coast Timber Supply Area. Enforcement teams are now in place and adherence to the guidelines is expected. (SEA
page 34)
• Community impacts
It is assumed that employment and income will decline approximately in proportion to the decline in the timber supply over time. In the base case, the first employment impacts occur after 60 years. It is difficult to predict the nature of the forestry labor force so far into the future and therefore to assess the impact of this decline.
Total timber supply area employment (direct and indirect) supported by the current allowable annual cut is about 432 person-years, with associated after-tax employment income of approximately $13.1 million annually. In 120 years, when the long-term timber supply is reached, total timber supply area employment is projected to be 217 person-years, with after-tax income of about $6.5 million (SEA page 29). The recently announced Forest Renewal Plan is expected to provide employment opportunities for displaced forest workers.
Some increase in tourism employment might be expected with declining harvests. However, given the lack of research about the relationship between harvest levels and tourism impacts, no attempt has been made to estimate tourism-related employment.
• Provincial impacts
The long-term timber supply is estimated to support a total of 373 person-years of direct provincial employment annually, including employment within the timber supply area. This is a decrease from 744 person-years currently. With the addition of spin-off or indirect employment, the long-term total employment would be 933 person-years, down from the current 1,860. Total employment therefore is projected to decline by 927 person-years over 120 years (SEA page 31).
If the allowable annual cut was reduced and current taxation procedures were maintained, provincial government revenues are projected to decline by $7.4 million annually when the long-term timber supply is reached in 120 years (SEA page 31). As discussed earlier, these estimates do not include expected increased stumpage revenues from the recently announced Forest Renewal Plan.
Note: The impacts of the alternative harvest forecasts are discussed in the SEA.
