To complete the timber supply analysis for this review, a computer model was used to generate a base case* timber supply forecast for the Kootenay Lake Timber Supply Area which met each of the following conditions:
• it maintained the current allowable annual cut as long as possible, or, if this was not possible, it found the maximum harvest rate;
• it reduced the harvest rate by approximately 10 per cent per decade, until the long-term harvest level was reached; and,
• it maintained harvest levels at or above the predicted long-term harvest level.
If a timber supply forecast could not be generated that met all these conditions, the analyst adjusted the conditions until a feasible forecast could be produced.
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It is important to note that the timber supply forecasts presented in the analysis report and in this paper do not represent either a short-term allowable annual cut determination or a long-term strategy to adjust harvests to sustainable levels. These forecasts are part of the information that will be used by the chief forester to determine the allowable annual cut for the next five years. |
In the Kootenay Lake Timber Supply Area, it was not possible to maintain the current allowable annual cut and meet the other two requirements. Using the best information that was available when the analysis was conducted in 1993, the base case timber supply forecast indicates a maximum harvest in the first 20 years of 803,000 cubic metres per year, 11 per cent below the current allowable annual cut. As Figure 5 indicates, after the second decade, harvests are projected to decrease by 10 per cent per decade until the long-term harvest level of 490,000 cubic metres per year is reached in 60 years (TSAR p. 13).
Figure 5. Base case timber supply forecast
This is not the only pattern that can be chosen to reduce the timber supply in the Kootenay Lake Timber Supply Area.
Several alternatives exist for the chief forester to adjust the short-term allowable annual cut as part of a strategy to achieve the long-term harvest reduction:
• the allowable annual cut could be maintained at a higher level for as long as possible, with reductions implemented in the future;
• small reductions could be implemented now, with larger declines in the future;
• a consistent level of reduction could occur throughout the transition period; or
• large reductions could be made now, with smaller reductions in the future.
This "falldown effect" is commonly observed in forests which are being harvested for the first time. It occurs because many existing forests are older than the average harvest age and contain higher volumes per hectare. As these stands are harvested and replaced by younger second-growth stands, the total standing volume declines.
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The chief forester must decide what the short-term allowable annual cut should be as part of the strategy to phase in the long-term adjustment. |
