To complete a timber supply analysis for the Cassiar Timber Supply Area, a computer model was used to attempt to generate a base case timber supply forecast which met the following conditions:
• it maintained the projected harvest at the highest possible level
• the timber supply forecast was not allowed to decline below the initial level
In the Cassiar Timber Supply Area, the present allowable annual cut can be maintained or increased without causing timber supply shortfalls in the future. The base case timber supply forecast illustrated in Figure 4 indicates an initial rate of harvest of 842,400 cubic metres per year, approximately six times greater than the present allowable annual cut of 140,000 cubic metres per year. This timber supply level can be maintained for 70 years before it increases to reach the long-term harvest level of 867,000 cubic metres per year (TSAR page 21).
Figure 4 Base case timber supply forecast
