Strategic Analysis Group - Biometrics Support

Overview
Current Focus Areas
Research Highlights
Consultations
Recent Publications
Biometrics Extension Products and Services
Other Publications and Presentations of Interest
Ministry Contacts

Overview

Biometricians consult with research scientists and other Ministry staff on the proper application of statistical methods, standards, and computer programs to meet research and operational needs. They also provide leadership by developing quantitative aspects of policy decisions.

Biometrics has provided critical support to Ministry priorities such as the Forest and Range Practices Act Resource Evaluation Program (FRPA/FREP), Forest Stewardship Planning, and timber supply review. They provide continuous technical support to researchers and Ministry staff working in many priority areas, including ranking habitat for species at risk, modelling future climate change scenarios, and studying the economics of beetle-killed forests.

Current Focus Area

Developing statistical methodology and extension products on stocking standards (free-growing status) and surveys. [LMH 50]
Assisting with developing functions that provide objective input parameters for stand development models such as the Tree and Stand Simulator (TASS) and TIPSY. For example, modelling maximum values rather than averages using stochastic frontier functions, such as canopy width in relation to independent variables.
Estimating parameters central to forest genetics research from discretely valued variables (categorical predictors, counts, etc.) using generalized linear mixed models.
Using statistical models to improve the ability of wildlife biologists to predict and rank habitat important to marbled murrelets.
Consulting and supporting FRPA/FREP resource value team leaders on sampling design and power analysis for evaluating effectiveness.
Consulting on data collection and analysis for the Site Index Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification (SIBEC).

Research Highlights

Modelling the 20-year shelf life of mountain pine beetle–killed wood in terms of how log grades change. By linking this to the projection of MPB mortality, this research has improved knowledge of the available fibre supply and economic outputs under various harvesting scenarios. [link]
Developed methodologies to explore the effects and risks of changing stocking survey parameters. Providing extension materials and ongoing consultation with operational staff. This research is providing policy support to Forest Practices Branch and Operations Division staff to evaluate the stocking standards proposed in Forest Stewardship Plans.
Published a FRPA Technical Note on sampling design. Using randomly selected units provides unbiased estimates of the mean and variability for indicators that are being studied or assessed for each resource value (for example, soils or fish/riparian) under the FRPA Resource Evaluation Program. [link]
Created an introductory Biometrics Pamphlet that compares model-based versus design-based inference from the standpoint of survey sampling. This pamphlet will be most relevant to forest researchers that use sampling to estimate variables such as abundance, density, basal area, or volume. [pdf]
Assisted with developing and testing a system for prioritizing fire suppression response that is partially based on the “Analytical Hierarchy Process.” This system allows Fire Control Centres to simultaneously consider several variables (e.g., proximity to settlement, forest value, wildlife considerations, or infrastructure) in one formal, objective, decision-making tool.
Assisted forest pathologists in designing and analyzing a study to resample stands previously declared free-growing in order to determine if they will maintain free-growing status 30 or 35 years in the future. This study has policy and liability implications related to the time at which a stand should be declared free-growing.
Provided analytical support for modelling 32-year-old provenance trial data and the implications for predicting the growth and yield impacts of future climate change scenarios.
Invited to Taiwan in November, 2007, to consult on data analysis, give a seminar on growth and yield modelling using the Ministry models as a framework, and discuss future collaborations with the Taiwanese research community.
Determining whether the SIBEC model can be refined by capturing any variability in site index that may exist within a site series, to improve growth and yield estimates for timber supply analyses and enhance silviculture applications.
Developing tools to better estimate site index for amabilis fir for growth and yield modelling in support of the Coastal Forest Action Plan.
Preparing an extension for Land Management Handbook 50 on silviculture survey parameters in homogenous cutblocks to include recently developed results for heterogeneous cutblocks.
Studying the use of mean stocked quadrant (MSQ) plots instead of well-spaced density to assess whether reforested cutblocks meet free-growing standards.
Developing methods to predict geographical zones of minimum stumpage using available billing data to simplify and improve the stumpage system.
Designing a new sampling algorithm for the provincial weight-scaling system.
Assessing the impacts of kiln-drying on the composition of grade 4 scaled volume and determining those wood characteristics which, prior to kiln drying, can quickly predict the percentage of grade 4 lodgepole pine dry wood in a cruise, to support stumpage calculations.

Consultations

The biometricians provide invaluable analytical and technical support to Forest Science Program researchers and Ministry entomologists and pathologists studying a variety of forest management issues, including mountain pine beetle, climate change, and soil conservation. They also provide critical support to many internal Ministry clients, including FRPA/FREP Resource Value Team leaders, the Resource Tenures and Engineering Branch, and the Chief Forester. For example, biometricians are providing policy support to district staff and licensees conducting stocking surveys and assessing free-growing status.

The role of Research Branch biometricians has been valuable to the Forest and Range Evaluation Program. They provide direct technical advice and support to resource value team leaders on site selection and sampling design. This has improved accuracy and reduced bias in evaluating the effectiveness of forest practices in achieving resource objectives under the Forest and Range Practices Act. They also assist researchers with large-scale sampling design and methodologies for collecting data to evaluate biodiversity, soils, and fish/hydrology indicators.

Recent Publications

Antos, J.A., R. Parish, and G.D. Nigh. 2008. Growth patterns prior to mortality of mature Abies lasiocarpa in old-growth subalpine forests of southern British Columbia. For. Ecol. Manag. 255(5-6): 1568-1574.

Goudie, J.W., K R. Polsson, and P. K. Ott. 2009. An empirical model of crown shyness for lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia [Engl.] Critch.) in British Columbia. For. Ecol. Manag. 257(1): 321-331.

Lofroth, E.C. and P.K. Ott. 2007. Assessment of the sustainability of wolverine harvest in British Columbia. J. Wildl. Manage. 71 (7): 2193–2200.

Mansfield, S.D., R. Parish, M.C. Di Lucca, J.W. Goudie, K.-Y. Kang, and P.K. Ott. [2009]. Revisiting the transition between juvenile and mature wood: a comparison of fibre length, microfibril angle and relative wood density in lodgepole pine. Holzforschung. In Press.

Mansfield, S.D., R. Parish, J.W. Goudie, K.-Y. Kang, and P.K. Ott. 2007. The effects of crown ratio on the transition from juvenile to mature wood production in lodgepole pine in western Canada. Can. J. For. Res. 37 (8): 1450–1459.

Nigh, G.D. and E. Everett. 2007. Years-to-stump-height and years-to-breast-height models for interior Douglas-fir, western larch, and ponderosa pine. Northwest Sci. 81: 293–304.

Nigh, G.D., J.A. Antos, and R. Parish. 2008a. Density and distribution of advance regeneration in mountain pine beetle killed lodgepole pine stands of the Montane Spruce zone of southern British Columbia. Can. J. For. Res. 38(11): 2826-2836.

Nigh, G.D., J.A. Antos, and R. Parish. 2008b. Tools to help forest managers with regeneration decisions about beetle-killed stands in the Montane Spruce zone of the Merritt Timber Supply Area. B.C. Min. For. Range, Res. Br., Victoria, B.C. Exten. Note 83.

O’Neill, G.A., T. Wang, G. Nigh, and P.K. Ott. 2007. Growth response functions improved by accounting for nonclimatic site effects. Can. J. For. Res. 37: 2724-2730.

Ott, P.K. 2007. Comparing design-based and model-based inference: an Introduction. Biometrics Information Pamphlet 63. B.C. Min. For. Range, Res. Br. Victoria, B.C.[pdf]

Waterhouse, F.L., A.E. Burger, A. Cober, A. Donaldson, and P.K. Ott. 2007. Assessing habitat quality of marbled murrelet nest sites on the Queen Charlotte Islands/Haida Gwaii, by algorithm, airphoto interpretation, and aerial survey methods. Research Section, Coast Forest Region, B.C. Min. For. Range, Nanaimo, B.C. Tech. Rep. TR-035. [link]

Waterhouse, F.L., A.E. Burger, D.B. Lank, P.K. Ott, E.A. Krebs, and N. Parker. [2009]. Using the Low-level Aerial Survey Method to Identify Nesting Habitat of Marbled Murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus). B.C. J. Ecosystems Manag. In Press.

Waterhouse F.L., A. Donaldson, D.B. Lank, P.K. Ott, and E.A. Krebs. 2008. Using air photos to interpret quality of marbled murrelet nesting habitat in south coastal British Columbia. B.C. J. Ecosystems Manag. 9(1): 17-37.

Biometrics Extension Products and Services

Biometrics Pamphlets – More than 60 pamphlets cover a range of topics, from Analysis of Co-Variance to Within Sums of Squares and everything in between. Available as pdf files or by contacting biometricians directly.

Handbooks – The following seven Biometrics Information Handbooks are available online or can be ordered as printed copies: [link]

Pictures of Linear Models. Biometrics Information Handbook No. 1
Power Analysis Handbook for the Design and Analysis of Forestry Trials. Biometrics Information Handbook No. 2
Guidelines for the Statistical Analysis of Forest Vegetation Management Data. Biometrics Information Handbook No. 3
Catalog of Curves for Curve Fitting. Biometrics Information Handbook No. 4
Analyzing ANOVA Designs - Working Paper 07. Biometrics Information Handbook No. 5
Analysis of Repeated Measures and Time Series: An Introduction with Forestry Examples - Working Paper 15. Biometrics Information Handbook No. 6
Introduction to Logistic Regression Models with Worked Forestry Examples - Working Paper 26. Biometrics Information Handbook No. 7

Ministry Contacts

Wendy Bergerud, Senior Biometrician
Peter Ott, Senior Biometrician

Ministry contact: Gord Nigh.
Please direct questions regarding webpage to For.Prodres@gov.bc.ca
Updated February 2008