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The Strategic Analysis Group
consists of Landscape Ecology Modelling and
Biometrics Support.
They provide strategic analysis and computer support to a variety of research
programs within the Forest Science Program, including
Silvicultural Systems and Forest Dynamics,
Climate Change and Seed Transfer, and
Plant Ecology / Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification. The group also
maintains the Experimental Project database.
Landscape
ecology modelers engage in research on topics related to the implications of
forest management at spatial scales larger than individual
cutblocks or forest stands. Their principal scientific domain is
landscape ecology and their primary tools are spatially explicit models and
Geographic Information Systems. By its very nature, much of their work is
collaborative and cross-disciplinary and therefore provides models, tools, and
products to other Forest Science Program researchers and a range of Ministry
staff involved in strategic-level forest management decisions. This research
supports the
Future Forest Ecosystem Initiative,
Timber Supply Review,
Land Use Planning,
Forests For Tomorrow, and
Forest Stewardship Planning. Models generated are providing critical
information and analysis for dealing with landscape-level issues such as
mountain pine beetle impacts and the implications of
climate change.
Provincial-level
modelling and analysis of the mountain pine beetle outbreak and management
responses. [link]
Updating digital data and
revising district-level biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification (BEC) maps and
tools (Version 7.0) to provide a basis for stand-level forest management
prescriptions and detailed Terrestrial Ecosystem Mapping (TEM) or Predictive
Ecosystem Mapping (PEM). [link]
Providing technical support and
advice on model development, spatial data management, GIS use and mapping
products, landscape-level analysis, and ecosystems mapping.
Using
spatial landscape metrics to determine the relationship between climate and
biogeoclimatic ecosystem mapping units.
Estimating patch-size, age, and
species-composition distributions prior to colonial contact for use in
establishing ecosystem resilience benchmarks.
- Contributing significantly to British
Columbia’s Mountain Pine Beetle Action Plan by:
- Refining models that analyze the
impacts of current outbreak and management actions, including
incorporating Landsat imagery to improve the resolution of aerial
overviews of forest health, such as stands killed by mountain pine
beetle, [link]
- Providing technical support to
develop new inventory and monitoring methods and procedures for mountain
pine beetle-affected areas, and
- Providing analysis and decision
support to the Chief Forester, Forest Analysis and Inventory Branch, and
district staff on the impacts of mountain pine beetle; for example,
summaries of annual and cumulative kill by management unit.
- Developing new BEC user products,
including new GIS layers that will simplify BEC units and allow for use at
different mapping scales. BEC products provide support
for a range of clients
including the Chief Forester, First Nations and industry resource managers,
and Ministry of Forests and Range and Ministry of Environment staff.
[link]
Landscape Ecology
Modelling researchers provide critical analysis and decision-making support to
clients involved in strategic forest-management decisions. The models, tools,
and products produced are used by many internal Ministry clients, from the Chief
Forester’s office and the Forest Analysis and Inventory Branch to the Aboriginal
Affairs Branch and District offices. External clients have included the
Canadian Forest Service, the Ministry of Small Business and Revenue, the Caribou
Recovery Team, the Forest Practices Board, and non-government organizations.
Researchers also provide ongoing technical support to formal committees and
working groups such as:
Mountain Pine Beetle
Inventory and Monitoring Project Team, Forest Analysis and Inventory Branch
– providing technical advice to the Forest Analysis and Inventory Branch to
develop new inventory/monitoring methods and procedures for mountain pine
beetle-affected areas.
Mountain Pine Beetle
Provincial Analysis Team – Mid-term Timber Supply Group, Forest Analysis and
Inventory Branch – providing
technical input and tools for determining the impact of mountain pine beetle on
mid-term timber supply by forest management unit.
Mountain Pine Beetle
Survey Group, Inventory Branch –
using model analysis and mapping products to assist in developing a field
sampling plan for infestation levels.
Rare Ecosystems Group
- working with the
Ministry of Environment’s Conservation Data Centre and other ecology researchers
to assign NatureServe’s global conservation status to the biogeoclimatic zones
of British Columbia.
Hectares BC
– collaborating between the Integrated Land Management Bureau, Ministry of
Forests and Range, and Ministry of Environment to provide a summary of
fine-grained spatial data at the regional and sub-regional level (1 hectare grid
size) to support requirements for land-use plans, ecosystem modelling, forest
sensitivity decisions, fisheries analyses, and other reporting purposes.
de Montigny,
L., G. Nigh, and R. Archer. 2007. MPB research stewardship strategy
implementation framework. B.C. Min. For., Range Res. Br., Victoria, B.C. [pdf]
Nigh, G.,
L. de Montigny, M. Eng, and R. Archer. 2006. Development of a research strategy
for mountain pine beetle issues associated with forest stewardship division
functions. B.C. Min. For. Range, Res. Br., Victoria, B.C.
Tech. Rep. 034.
Walton, A.
and J. Hughes. 2007. Provincial-level projection of the current mountain pine
beetle outbreak: Documentation of revisions to the model resulting in BCMPB.v4.
[link]
Walton, A.,
J. Hughes, M. Eng, A. Fall, T. Shore, B. Riel, and P. Hall. 2007.
Provincial-level projection of the current mountain pine beetle outbreak: update
of the infestation projection based on the 2006 provincial aerial overview of
the forest health and revisions to “the model” (BCMPB.v4). [link]
Walton, A. and D. Meidinger. 2006.
Capturing expert knowledge for ecosystem mapping using Bayesian network. Can. J.
For. Res. 36: 3087-3103.
Eng, M.A.
2004. A BC perspective on landscape and population modelling. In Northern
Spotted Owl Workshop, Vancouver, B.C. 2004. Zimmerman, K. (editor) Forrex
Series 14, pp.29-31. [pdf]
Eng, M., A.
Fall, and G. D. Sutherland. 2001. Examining assumptions about unsalvaged losses
in timber supply analysis. Presentation at Natural Disturbance and Forest
Management: What's Happening and Where It's Going. Mar. 5-7, 2001 Edmonton, Alta
Sponsored by the Sustainable Forest Management Network.
Eng, M., A.
Fall, and G.D. Sutherland. 2001. Simulating natural disturbance dynamics and
evaluating management scenarios with the Robson Valley Landscape Model. B.C.
Ministry of Forests, Victoria, B.C.
Eng, M. and E.
Hamilton. 2000. From here to eternity: The perils of policy analysis. In: Proc.:
From science to management and back: A science forum for southern interior
ecosystems of British Columbia. C. Hollstedt, K. Sutherland, and T. Innes
(editors) Southern Interior Forest Extension and Research Partnership, Dec. 1-2,
1999, Kamloops, B.C. ,pp. 55-58.
Sutherland, G.D,
M.A. ,Eng, and S.A. Fall. 2004. Effects of uncertainties about stand-replacing
natural disturbances on forest-management projections. BC Journal of Ecosystems
and Management. 4(2).
Sutherland, G.,
M.A. Eng, and S. A. Fall. 2002. Uncertainties from natural disturbance
scenarios on Forest management projections in the Robson Valley. B.C. Min. For.
Robson Valley District, McBride, B.C.
Adrian Walton, Landscape Modelling Biologist
Gord Nigh, Leader, Strategic Analysis
The Strategic
Analysis Group consists of
Biometrics and
Landscape Ecology Modelling. They provide strategic analysis and
computer support to a variety of research programs within the Forest Science
Program, including
Silvicultural Systems and Forest Dynamics,
Climate Change and Seed Transfer, and
Plant Ecology/Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification. The group also
maintains the Experimental Project database.
Biometricians
consult with research scientists and other Ministry staff on the proper
application of statistical methods, standards, and computer programs to meet
research and operational needs. They also provide leadership by developing
quantitative aspects of policy decisions.
Biometrics has
provided critical support to Ministry priorities such as the
Forest and Range Practices Act Resource Evaluation Program (FRPA/FREP),
Forest Stewardship Planning,
and
timber supply review.
They provide continuous technical support to researchers and Ministry staff
working in many priority areas, including ranking
habitat for species at risk, modelling future climate change scenarios, and
studying the economics of beetle-killed forests.
-
Developing
statistical methodology and extension products on stocking standards
(free-growing status) and surveys. [LMH
50]
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Assisting with developing functions that provide objective input parameters
for stand development models such as the Tree and Stand Simulator (TASS)
and
TIPSY. For example, modelling maximum values rather than averages using
stochastic frontier functions, such as canopy width in relation to
independent variables.
-
Estimating parameters central to forest genetics research from discretely
valued variables (categorical predictors, counts, etc.) using generalized
linear mixed models.
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Using
statistical models to improve the ability of wildlife biologists to predict
and rank habitat important to marbled murrelets.
-
Consulting and supporting FRPA/FREP resource value team leaders on sampling
design and power analysis for evaluating effectiveness.
- Consulting on data
collection and analysis for the Site Index Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem
Classification (SIBEC).
-
Modelling the
20-year shelf life of mountain pine beetle–killed wood in terms of how log
grades change. By linking this to the projection of MPB mortality, this
research has improved knowledge of the available fibre supply and economic
outputs under various harvesting scenarios. [link]
-
Developed
methodologies to explore the effects and risks of changing stocking survey
parameters. Providing extension materials and ongoing consultation with
operational staff. This research is
providing policy support to Forest Practices Branch and Operations Division
staff to evaluate the stocking standards proposed in
Forest Stewardship Plans.
-
Published a FRPA
Technical Note on sampling design. Using randomly selected units provides
unbiased estimates of the mean and variability for indicators that are being
studied or assessed for each resource value (for example, soils or
fish/riparian) under the FRPA Resource Evaluation Program. [link]
-
Created
an introductory Biometrics Pamphlet that compares model-based versus
design-based inference from the standpoint of survey sampling. This pamphlet
will be most relevant to forest researchers that use sampling to estimate
variables such as abundance, density, basal area, or volume. [pdf]
-
Assisted with developing and testing a system for prioritizing fire
suppression response that is partially based on the “Analytical Hierarchy
Process.” This system allows Fire Control Centres to simultaneously
consider several variables (e.g., proximity to settlement, forest value,
wildlife considerations, or infrastructure) in one formal, objective,
decision-making tool.
-
Assisted forest pathologists in designing and analyzing a study to resample
stands previously declared free-growing in order to determine if they will
maintain free-growing status 30 or 35 years in the future. This study has
policy and liability implications related to the time at which a stand
should be declared free-growing.
-
Provided analytical support for modelling 32-year-old provenance trial data
and the implications for predicting the growth and yield impacts of future
climate change scenarios.
- Invited to Taiwan in
November, 2007, to consult on data analysis, give a seminar on growth and
yield modelling using the Ministry models as a framework, and discuss future
collaborations with the Taiwanese research community.
The
biometricians provide invaluable analytical and technical support to Forest
Science Program researchers and Ministry entomologists and pathologists studying
a variety of forest management issues, including mountain pine beetle, climate
change, and soil conservation. They also provide critical support to many
internal Ministry clients, including FRPA/FREP Resource Value Team leaders, the
Resource Tenures and Engineering Branch, and the Chief Forester. For example,
biometricians are providing policy support to district staff and licensees
conducting stocking surveys and assessing free-growing status.
The role of Research Branch
biometricians has been valuable to the
Forest and Range Evaluation Program. They provide direct technical advice
and support to resource value team leaders on site selection and sampling
design. This has improved accuracy and reduced bias in evaluating the
effectiveness of forest practices in achieving resource objectives under the
Forest and Range Practices Act. They also assist researchers with
large-scale sampling design and methodologies for collecting data to evaluate
biodiversity, soils, and fish/hydrology indicators.
Lofroth, E.C. and P.K. Ott.
2007. Assessment of the sustainability of wolverine harvest in British Columbia.
J. Wildl. Manage. 71 (7): 2193–2200.
Mansfield, S.D., R. Parish, J.W.
Goudie, K.-Y. Kang, and P.K. Ott. 2007. The effects of crown ratio on the
transition from juvenile to mature wood production in lodgepole pine in western
Canada. Can. J. For. Res. 37 (8): 1450–1459.
Nigh, G.D. and E. Everett.
2007. Years-to-stump-height and years-to-breast-height models for interior
Douglas-fir, western larch, and ponderosa pine. Northwest Sci. 81: 293–304.
O’Neill,
G.A., T. Wang, G. Nigh, and P.K. Ott. [2007]. Growth response functions improved
by accounting for nonclimatic site effects. Can. J. For. Res. In press.
Ott, P.K.
2007. Comparing design-based and model-based inference: an Introduction.
Biometrics Information Pamphlet 63. B.C. Min. For. Range, Res. Br. Victoria,
B.C.[pdf]
Waterhouse, F.L., A.E. Burger,
A. Cober, A. Donaldson, and P.K. Ott. 2007. Assessing habitat quality of marbled
murrelet nest sites on the Queen Charlotte Islands/Haida Gwaii, by algorithm,
airphoto interpretation, and aerial survey methods. Research Section, Coast
Forest Region, B.C. Min. For. Range, Nanaimo, B.C. Tech. Rep. TR-035. [link]
Waterhouse
F.L., A. Donaldson, D.B. Lank, P.K. Ott, and E.A. Krebs. [2007]. Using air
photos to interpret quality of marbled murrelet nesting habitat in south coastal
British Columbia. B.C. J. Ecosystems Manage. In press.
Biometrics Pamphlets – More than 60 pamphlets cover a range of topics, from
Analysis of Co-Variance to Within Sums of Squares and everything
in between. Available as pdf files or by contacting biometricians directly.
Handbooks –
The following seven Biometrics Information Handbooks are available online or can
be ordered as printed copies: [link]
- Bergerud, W.A. 1996.
Displaying factor relationships in experiments. Am. Statistician
50(3):228–233.
- Bergerud, W.A. 2002. The
effect of the silviculture survey parameters on the free-growing decision
probabilities and projected volume at rotation. B.C. Min. For., Res. Br.,
Victoria, B.C.
Land Manage.
Hand. 50.
- Bergerud, W.A. 2003.
FORREX workshop: The mysteries of operational trials unraveled.
- Bergerud, W.A. 2003.
Planning and Implementing a Research Study (March 21, 2003).
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Bergerud,
W. A. 2004. Why the units we evaluate should be randomly selected. The FRPA
Evaluator, Tech. Note 3, B.C. Min. For., For. Practices Br.
- Bergerud, W.A. and V.
Sit. 2001.
Power Analysis Workshop Notes.
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Bergerud,
W.A., P. Tschaplinski, and P. Bradford.
2005. Protocol for 2005 Resource
Stewardship Monitoring: Steps for the selection of sites under riparian-fish
and stand-level biodiversity Resource Stewardship Monitoring. FRPA Resource
Evaluation Program. B.C. Min. For., B.C. Min. Water, Land and Air Protect.,
and B.C. Min. Sustain. Resour. Manage., Victoria, B.C. [link]
- Sit, V. and B. Taylor.
1998. Statistical methods for adaptive management studies.. B.C. Min. For.,
Res. Br., Victoria, B.C.
Land Manage.
Hand. 42.
SAS Programming Support – Hints and Tips
Since 1999, the Ministry
standard for statistical software is SAS. The Biometrics Support group currently
provides official software support for SAS, and, to some extent, JMP. Annotated
Programs, Bulletins, and some of the local SAS user group presentations are
available at our
ftp site. To access the site, enter “anonymous” for user-id, and your e-mail
address for the password.
The Biometrics Group are
executive members of the SAS User’s Association of Victoria and environs (SUAVe),
which has a page on the SAS web site. Presentations from previous user’s group
meetings are also posted
here.
Links to Useful Sites
Associations and Journals
The Statistical Society of Canada
SSC Statistical Education Committee
The American Statistical Association
Ecology and Society
The Society for Conservation Biology
The Canadian Society of Environmental Biologists
Biometrika
Universities
UVIC Math & Statistics
UBC Statistics
SFU Math & Statistics
The WWW Virtual Library of Statistics
Software
The SAS Institute
S-PLUS Information
Resampling Stats Home Page
On-Line Course
Carl Schwarz' STAT 403/650: Quantitative Methods for Resource Managers and
Field Biologists.
Other
Statistical Publications
Collecting Information on Treatment Response
Wendy Bergerud, Senior Biometrician
Peter Ott, Senior Biometrician
Ministry contact:
Gord Nigh.
Please direct questions
regarding webpage to For.Prodres@gov.bc.ca
Updated February 2008
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