Research Branch Staff Publications

Brave new breeding zones.

Citation:

O'Neill, G.A., Hamann, A., Wang, T., and Aitken, S.A. 2004. Brave new breeding zones. In Proceedings of the Twenty-ninth meeting of the Canadian Tree Improvement Association: climate change and forest genetics, Kelowna, BC. Edited by G.A. O'Neill and J.D. Simpson. Canadian Tree Improvement Association. pp. 64.

Abstract:

As the climate changes, seed from breeding programs will have to be deployed to new areas to ensure that it is adapted to the climate in which it is planted. To examine the direction and extent of these changes, lodgepole pine provenance test data was used to develop genetic maps based on current climate. Eleven breeding zones were delineated from the genetic maps in a manner that is expected to minimize maladaptation. The ‘climate envelop’ of each current breeding zone was defined and used in conjunction with future climate maps to map the location of future breeding zones. Comparisons of current and future locations of breeding zones indicate that some zones will shift up to substantially northward within 50 years. In addition, several zones will change significantly in spatial extent, with implications for future seed demand and conservation needs.

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