Model Origins Project Partners Current Development

Model Origins

Prognosis^BC is British Columbia's adaptation of the US Forest Service Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS).

FVS was developed by Dr. Albert R. Stage (et al.) in the late 1970s to support uneven-aged, mixed-species management in North Idaho. Today, the suite of FVS products has been expanded to more than 20 geographic variants across the United States. Two such variants exist in Canada: Prognosis^BC and a variant for the boreal and mixed-wood regions of Ontario.

Variants account for differences in the relationships between growth and site descriptors, different plant communities, and differences in forest management practices. When the base model is calibrated to reflect the ecology and climate of a specific geographical area, the model assumes the stand growth characteristics of that area and is then referred to as a variant. Using local data, each variant has empirically derived growth and mortality equations for the species that are most important to the region. The North Idaho variant is ecologically similar, though not identical, to interior British Columbia and was the starting point for calibrating the BC variant, also known as the Southern Interior Variant.

FVS was chosen to model the development of complex stands in BC for three main reasons. First, its growth equations are a function of tree size, vigour and dominance, and not age. Second, site productivity is described by site characteristics rather than tree characteristics: the model is based on BEC rather than Site Index. Finally, it has a track record of over 3 decades of reliable use and its open source code is supported through regular bug fixes and enhancements provided by a broad user community.

The BC Ministry of Forests and Range has adapted FVS for use in British Columbia by:

• developing the Southern Interior Variant (Prognosis^BC) for use in the IDF and ICH zones;
• developing a simple graphical interface for FVS: SimProg; and
• developing graphical utilities for data input: DataProg, and output: ViewProg.

Details of the Version History of Prognosis^BC are on this page.

Development Strategy

Project Partners

Funding for this project has been provided by the BC Ministry of Forests and Range, the Forestry Investment Account (FIA), Forestry Innovation Investment, Forest Renewal BC, and the Canada-British Columbia Partnership Agreement on Forest Resource Development (FRDA-II).

The project team is grateful for support and direction from Al Stage (retired), Nick Crookston, Bill Wykoff, Melinda Moeur, Bov Eav, and Gary Dixon of the US Forest Service.

Development was approved by BC's Forest Productivity Council, and is supported by partners in government, industry, Forest Renewal BC, University of BC, and consultants.

Government

• Forest Practices Branch
• Research Branch
• Forest Analysis and Inventory Branch
• University of British Columbia, Faculty of Forestry

Industry

• Interior Lumber Manufacturer’s Association
• Pope and Talbot
• Tolko Industries (formerly Riverside Forest Products)
• West Fraser
• Weyerhaeuser

Current Development

Current work is focusing on:

• continuing the development of a natural regeneration component for Prognosis^BC;
• continued testing of the behaviour of the model as equation forms are modified and/or equation parameters are re-estimated;
• developing height growth and mortality models for young even-aged stands in the IDF; and
• integrating Version 3.3 - calibrated for the IDF and ICH biogeoclimatic zones - with a renewed Version 2.0 for those zones not currently localized in the Version 3 calibration: the MS and ESSF zones. When complete, this will create a common interface for both versions and will allow the Version 2 model to comply with MFR computer software requirements.

Comments are welcome, and should be directed to Prognosis^BC Support, or call toll-free at 1.866.515.3772.