Provincial-Level Projection of
the Current Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak

Year 5 (Current Results)

In the past year (2007/2008), the beetle projection portion of the model has been slightly altered and projections updated based on the results of the 2007 Provincial Aerial Overview of Forest Health. This work represents "updates" to the efforts of Year 4.  The current projection results do not project the forest management response to the current outbreak.

Reports

• Infestation Projection: updated to include the 2007 Provincial Aerial Overview of Forest Health

• Methods updates: describing revisions and enhancements to the model resulting in BCMPB.v5

Management Unit Summaries

• Timber harvesting land base summaries and projection of the infestation by management unit (no forest harvesting); Warning: 29 MB

Spreadsheets

• Projection of the infestation (no forest harvesting); 125 KB

Cartographic Maps

The following series of cartographic maps represents the state of the outbreak as seen in 2007, and as projected for 3 different years in the future.  They are PDF files approximately 2 megabytes in size.  [If the PDF files do not load properly within your browser, right-click on a link, save to your computer, then load manually with Adobe Reader.]

• Observed percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) in 2007

• Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2008

• Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2012

• Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2016

GIS Maps

Geographic Information System (GIS) maps are available on BCMPB portion of the Ministry of Forests and Range FTP site (ftp.for.gov.bc.ca/HRE/external/!publish/BCMPB). The site contains a number of zip files, each of which contain a number of ArcGIS ASCII format grids and a text file with metadata.   Please refer to the 'readme.txt' and the metadata before using any of the provided data.

• The projection provided is one instance of the output from a stochastic model (BCMPB.v5).  It is a projection of what might happen rather than a prediction of what will happen. We are reasonably confident in the end result, at a district scale, but the specific progression of the outbreak at a "watershed" scale is uncertain, primarily because we can not "predict" the weather over the province during the next 20 years. Please use and interpret the data accordingly.