Provincial-Level Projection of
the Current Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak

Year 4 Results

In the past year (2006/2007), the beetle projection portion of the model has been slightly altered and projections updated based on the results of the 2006 Provincial Aerial Overview of Forest Health. This work represents "updates" to the efforts of Year 3.  The current projection results do not project the forest management response to the current outbreak.

Reports

• Infestation Projection: updated to include the 2006 Provincial Aerial Overview of Forest Health

• Methods updates: describing revisions and enhancements to the model resulting in BCMPB.v4

Spreadsheets

• Projection of the infestation (no forest harvesting); 125 KB

Cartographic Maps

The following series of cartographic maps represents the state of the outbreak as seen in 2006, and as projected for 3 different years in the future.  They are PDF files approximately 2 megabytes in size.  [If the PDF files do not load properly within your browser, right-click on a link, save to your computer, then load manually with Adobe Reader.]

• Observed percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) in 2006

• Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2007

• Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2011

• Projection of percentage of pine volume killed (red- and grey-attack) by 2015