Provincial-Level Projection of
the Current Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak

Year 3 Results

In the past year (2005/2006), both the beetle projection and forest management response portions of the model have been improved and projections updated based on the results of the 2005 Provincial Aerial Overview of Forest Health. This work represents "updates" to the efforts of Year 2.

Reports

• Methods updates: describing revisions and enhancements to the model resulting in BCMPB.v3

• Infestation Projection: updated to include 2005 data

• Non-Recovered Losses Projection: updated to include revised shelf-life assumptions and management model enhancements

Spreadsheets

• Projection of the infestation alone (no forest harvesting)  125 KB

Maps

The following series of maps represents the state of the outbreak as seen in 2005 and as projected for 3 different years in the future.  They are 2.5 megabyte PDF files.  [If the PDF files do not load properly within your browser, right-click on a link, save to your computer, then load manually with Adobe Reader.]

• Observed percentage of  pine volume killed in 2005

• Projection of percentage of  pine volume killed by 2006

• Projection of percentage of  pine volume killed by 2009

• Projection of percentage of  pine volume killed by 2012