The State of BC’s Forests The Indicators Timber harvest — PDF print version

Indicator 13 – Timber harvest

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Why is this important?

Timber harvests have direct implications for environmental integrity and sustainable economic activity.

Overview

• This indicator examines timber volume; for area harvested and economic importance, see the indicators Ecosystem dynamics, Forest products, and Jobs and communities.
• Timber harvests supported much of British Columbia’s economic development, and continue to be important to the province’s economy.
• Provincial harvest levels are projected to be higher over the next decade as a response to the current mountain pine beetle epidemic, followed by compensating decreases.

STATE

good

TREND

mixed

INFORMATION

partial

Questions about the timber harvest

13-1	How much timber is harvested annually?
13-2	How does the timber harvest compare with the sustainable level?
13-3	What is the provincial timber supply forecast?
13-4	How does the timber supply forecast vary locally?
	Ministry of Forests and Range’s assessment

Related indicators

• Natural disturbances such as wildfires and pest infestations affect planned timber harvest levels (see Ecosystem dynamics).
• The level of timber harvests affects the economy (see Forest products, Jobs and communities), ecosystems and perhaps even the climate (see Ecosystem diversity, Species diversity, Greenhouse gases).
• Management responses include planning, appropriate forest practices (see Law) and reforestation (see Silviculture).

Indicator 13-1

How much timber is harvested annually?

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Why is this important?

Timber harvests supported a large part of B.C.’s economic development and continue to provide the economic base for many rural communities.

State and Trend

• The annual timber harvest from all public and private land increased ten-fold during the 1900s, and levelled off in the 1990s.
• Concern about the rapid increase led to government regulation of harvest levels to ensure sustainable timber supplies and community stability. Beginning in 1949, government set allowable annual cuts (AACs) to regulate harvest levels on public land and some private land.
• Over the last ten years, the average total timber harvest was 77 million m³ per year, of which 68 million m³ per year (89%) were from forests where harvest levels are regulated by AACs.
• Almost all of the harvest regulated by AACs is from 37 timber supply areas (TSAs) and 33 tree farm licences (TFLs), for which the provincial government’s chief forester sets AACs. These provided about 86% of the total timber harvest over the last ten years. The government’s senior decision-makers also set AACs for more than 800 woodlot licences and community forests that comprised 3%.
• The remaining 9 million m³ per year (11%) were from lands with no government-set AACs, primarily private land and some public land.
• Maps: Forest Management Units (PDF)

Information

• Detailed data on timber harvest volumes and areas by land status and species exist for most of the past century, with only a few minor gaps.
• Data are publicly available in the Ministry of Forests and Range’s annual reports.
• References: MFR’s Annual reports, Resource Tenures
• Related international and national indicators: MP 2.d; CCFM 5.3.1

Indicator 13-2

How does the timber harvest compare with the sustainable level?

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Why is this important?

Environmental integrity and sustainable economic activity depend on maintaining a long-term balance between forest growth and timber harvest.

State and Trend

• This comparison can be made for areas regulated by government-set AACs. In the last ten years, these accounted for 89% of the total harvest.
• Each forest management unit’s AAC represents a sustainable harvest level that balances environmental, economic and social considerations.
• In the last 10 years, the average harvest regulated by AACs was 68 million m³ per year, or 10% less than the sustainable level (sum of AACs) of 77 million m³ per year. Among the causes for this difference are market fluctuations and delays in forest planning.
• AACs are the maximum average level of harvests for a five-year period. Within this period, actual harvests may exceed AACs for a short period, if offset by lower subsequent harvests.
• In the last few years, AACs of some management units have been increased to address the current mountain pine beetle epidemic with pest control measures and salvage programs. Decreases in the AACs of these units are projected for the future.
• AACs have also changed to reflect new harvesting and milling technologies (increases in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s), new legislation (the decrease around 1980), and the establishment of new parks and forest practices (the decrease in the early 1990s).
• Maps: Forest Management Units (PDF)

Information

• Analyses and rationales for government-set AACs are publicly available. Little information is available for forests without government-set AACs.
• References: MFR’s Forest Analysis
• Related international and national indicators: MP 2.d; CCFM 5.3.1

Indicator 13-3

What is the provincial timber supply forecast?

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Why is this important?

Stable timber supplies are important to the provincial economy and to customers who rely on B.C.’s forest products.

State and Trend

• Timber supply forecasts are influenced by many factors: past harvest levels, the current mountain pine beetle epidemic, the shift to harvesting more second-growth forests and estimates of future growth rates. Current harvests are based on accumulated volumes in older forests. Future harvests will rely on the faster growth of second-growth forests.
• Increases in AACs, for pest control measures and salvage programs, the provincial timber supply forecast peaks at 89 million m³ per year in 2007, or 34% above the average actual harvest of 66 million m³ per year in the 1990s (before the AAC increases).
• A decrease to 73 million m³ per year is projected in 2014, followed by further decreases until 2060. The forecast remains between 6% and 13% higher than the average actual harvest in the 1990s.
• Maps: Forest Management Units (PDF)

Information

• Detailed timber supply forecasts and their related assumptions are publicly available for timber supply areas and tree farm licences.
• Research shows that second-growth forests grow faster than previously estimated. Higher growth rates have been verified by field sampling and included in the timber supply forecasts for about half of the management units. Unverified estimates are shown separately for the other half.
• Uncertainties in timber supply forecasting include merchantability of species, operability, future management practices, the future harvestable land base, wildfires and insect epidemics¹³. New AACs every five years, set with the latest information, reduce the risks related to uncertainty.
• References: MFR’s Forest Analysis, Site Productivity
• Related international and national indicators: MP 2.d; CCFM 5.3.1

Indicator 13-4

How does the timber supply forecast vary locally?

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Why is this important?

Stable timber supplies are important to local economies, especially in rural areas with substantial economic dependence on the forest sector.

State and Trend

• Local timber supply forecasts vary considerably due to localized factors such as the current mountain pine beetle epidemic and in the timing of the shift to harvesting second-growth forests.
• Forecast changes in long-term timber supply for TSAs and TFLs show where economic and social impacts can be anticipated.
• Decreases of 12% or more¹⁴ between 2000 and 2050 are forecast in 16 TSAs and 12 TFLs. Large decreases can be expected to lead to changes in the structure of local economies.
• Increases of 12% or more by 2050 are forecast in 2 TFLs. Increases in timber supply create opportunities for economic growth.
• Maps: Forest Management Units (PDF)

Information

• Recent temporary AAC increases, related to the mountain pine beetle epidemic, averaged over 50% in 7 TSAs and over 100% in 6 TFLs. Only one of the 13 increases is included in data for 2000, making 2000 a good base for comparison. Subsequent decreases in timber supply are projected to continue for many years, including the forecast for 2050.
• Timber supply forecasts and their related assumptions, are publicly available for TSAs and TFLs. Economic and social impact assessments are publicly available for TSAs.
• Verified higher growth rates were used in forecasts for half of the forest management units. Unverified estimates were not included in others.
• These forecasts are based on the current harvestable land base and management practices.
• References: MFR’s Forest Analysis, Site Productivity
• Related international and national indicators: MP 2.d; CCFM 5.3.1

 

Indicator 13 – Timber harvest Ministry of Forests and Range’s assessment State good British Columbia’s early economic development was largely dependent on timber harvests that increased rapidly during the 1900s. Forest management units with government-regulated AACs provided 89% of the total harvest in the last 10 years, and harvests in these units averaged 10% below the sustainable level represented by the provincial sum of AACs. The mountain pine beetle epidemic led to temporary increases in AAC of about 15 million m3 per year to enable the harvest of timber that would otherwise become commercially unusable. The provincial harvest in 2005/06 was a record 90 million m3, well above the average of 77 million m3 over the last 10 years. Trend mixed Collectively, forests with government-regulated AACs are forecast to have timber supplies that will provide a stable, long-term base for the provincial economy. However, timber supply forecasts show significant local variation. Some forest management units have had temporary AAC increases of over 100% to address the current mountain pine beetle epidemic. Over the next 50 years, other increases of more than 12% are expected in a few units. These increases provide opportunities for new investments in the forest industry. In the units with temporary AAC increases, large decreases will ultimately be required. Over the next several decades, decreases of more than 12% are expected for other reasons in several more units. These decreases are likely to require future transitions for workers and communities. Information partial Substantial, detailed information related to timber supply exists for forests with government-regulated AACs. Most of this information is publicly available. Research shows that many second-growth forests grow faster than previously estimated. This allays previously published concerns that timber supplies would decrease to 50–60 million m3 per year. Forests that do not have government-regulated harvest levels (mostly on private land) account for 11% of the provincial timber harvest. The government has little information about the sustainability of harvests from these forests.