Training & Education

An Introductory Guide to Adaptive Management for Project Leaders and Participants

Step 6. Adjustment/ Revision of Hypotheses & Management

Information must be used in order to have value. Information gained through the preceding five steps should be used to verify or update the models used to make the initial forecasts, and adjust management actions as necessary. Objectives should be reviewed and adjusted to ensure that they remain consistent with overall goals and values.

In order to facilitate change, participants should consider at the outset (i.e., in Step 2) how actions might be adjusted. However, results are rarely as clear as anticipated, and thus adjustments are rarely as simple as those proposed initially. In addition, management experiments may yield some useful information that was not anticipated. Well-defined feedback loops are intended to ensure that information is used promptly and appropriately; they are not meant to be rigid rules that frustrate adaptation.

Often, new information will suggest new management solutions, or new questions to answer...leading to another cycle of assessment, design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation.

6.1 Identify where uncertainties have been reduced, and where they remain unresolved.

6.2 Adjust the model used to forecast outcomes (Step 1) so that it reflects the hypothesis supported by results.

6.3 Adjust subsequent management decisions and policies, and reevaluate objectives, as necessary.

• In deciding what adjustments to make, consider the reasons underlying differences between expected and actual outcomes (Step 5).
• Future actions should be based on which hypothesis of system function was supported by the results.

6.4 Make new predictions, design new management experiments, test new options.

• i.e., return to step 1 or 2
• In future management experiments, address unresolved or newly-identified uncertainties that affect predicted outcomes and decisions about which actions to implement.

Documenting plans and communicating results

Documenting plans and communicating results are crucial elements of adaptive management. The impact of many management activities can be assessed reliably only over the long term. All aspects of adaptive management, including funding, project co-ordination, data handling, and dissemination of information, must be designed to accommodate the potentially long time frame.

1. Document all major steps in the process including:

• functional relationships, models, key uncertainties;
• reasoning behind the choice of management plan, monitoring program and expected outcomes;
• methods, sites, treatments;
• participants and their roles and responsibilities.

2. Ensure that such information is accessible over the long term, and in the event of turnover in participants.

3. Define who is responsible for co-ordinating and for carrying out each task.

4. Set time lines for carrying out each task or part of project.

5. Distribute interim and final results.

• A number of avenues can be used to communicate results, including written progress and final reports, presentations, seminars, field trips, informal discussions, posters.
• In communicating the results, specify which uncertainties have been reduced, and how this affects understanding of the system and future management actions.

Creating success: what you can do to facilitate learning

Project leaders play a crucial leadership role in encouraging the conditions that facilitate adaptive management. In particular, institutional environment and individual attitudes are as critical to effective adaptive management and learning as the actual steps followed. There is an extensive body of literature that discusses "organizational learning"; we encourage you to refer to some of the references listed at the end of this document. Below are some specific recommendations for creating success in adaptive management.

1. Create an atmosphere and promote an attitude that is conducive to long-term learning - where:

• mistakes are recognized as the price of innovation and are treated as opportunities to learn;
• the desire (incentive) to improve is greater than the fear of failure;
• there is more patience and less demand for quick fixes;
• people are explicitly rewarded for innovation and learning (i.e., in performance evaluations).

2. Ensure that all participants have a clear, consistent understanding of adaptive management.

3. Build contingency plans into project to deal with:

• potentially negative outcomes of some treatments;
• unanticipated and uncontrollable events that compromise design (e.g., wildfires that destroy replicates);
• interruptions in funding;
• external pressures to alter projects.

4. Anticipate potential barriers and develop strategies for overcoming or minimizing them.

See Appendix 2.

A Final Comment

In using this introductory guide, keep in mind that adaptive management is like painting: knowing the steps is important, but it isn't enough to create great art. Potential project leaders and participants are encouraged to use other resources, including those offered by the BC Forest Service Adaptive Forest Management initiative. We must learn how to do adaptive management by doing it.