Table 7.4 estimates tourist expenditures and outdoor recreation expenditures in 1993. Tourism data in this section are derived from various B.C. Tourism studies. The data were extrapolated and interpreted in order to distinguish between outdoor recreation and non-outdoor recreation related to tourism and to provide estimates for each forest region. The approach taken is explained for each figure and table.
About 25% of tourism expenditures shown in Table 7.4 are estimated to be for outdoor recreation on Crown lands, while about 40% of outdoor recreation expenditures on Crown land are estimated to be from tourism (overnight use).
Combined expenditures for tourism and outdoor recreation are about $8.1 billion per year, based on this 1993 estimate. The economic impact of these expenditures is estimated in Table 7.5. The estimates from a government tourism study of the period 1981-1991[163 ]were adjusted to 1993, as previously described, and extrapolated to outdoor recreation (i.e., recreation expenditures were assumed to have similar economic impacts for each dollar spent). For example, the tourism study determined that about 50% of tourism expenditures contribute towards the provincial GDP and this contribution is used also for recreation.
Table 7.6 summarizes combined expenditures for outdoor recreation and tourism by forest region.
The outdoor recreation in provincial forests estimates in Table 7.6 are the same as those used in Figure 7.51. The estimates of outdoor recreation on Crown land assume that outdoor recreation users in parks (shown in Figure 5.29) have similar expenditures per visitor-day as in provincial forests. The estimates of wilderness recreation expenditure assume that the distribution of wilderness recreation in forest regions is proportionally similar to the distribution of outdoor recreation use on Crown lands. Tourism (2) estimates include B.C. resident and non-resident travel where the expressed main purpose of trip was an outdoor/wilderness adventure trip, touring trip or resort vacation.
Tourism estimates for each forest region were estimated by equating a tourism region (or a part of a tourism region) to a forest region. Information on tourist expenditures is based on several reports.[164]
Table 7.7 estimates the direct employment in B.C. resulting from these expenditures by forest region. The direct employment numbers were derived by extrapolating Ministry of Tourism (1993) estimates of employment, based on tourism expenditures (105 000 people directly employed in B.C. as a result of tourism expenditures), to the outdoor recreation and tourism expenditures in Table 7.6.[165] The tables show that for tourism, about $54 000 in expenditures in B.C. translates into one directly employed person. This average expenditure per directly employed person was used to transform Table 7.6 into employment estimates for outdoor recreation.
Another economic impact of outdoor recreation and wilderness is that it may attract or stabilize population. It is usually assumed that economic reasons, such as employment, are the primary influence on an individual’s decisions to move or stay in an area.
Some recent studies suggest non-economic or amenity reasons are major factors in decisions to move or stay. For example, a 1989 United States study noted that the population growth in 278 largely non-metropolitan counties with designated wilderness areas had grown two to three times more than in other non-wilderness counties.[166] The residents of wilderness counties most frequently cited scenery (83%), outdoor recreation (79%) and environmental quality (78%) as important reasons for their decision to move to the county. In comparison, employment was rated important by 42% of residents. A related study in 15 of the fastest-growing wilderness counties found that 25% of the migrants increased their income, while almost 50% accepted income losses in their move.[167]
The population of B.C. increased from 2.9 million residents in 1986 to 3.3 million in 1991. This represents a 13.8% change over five years or a 2.6% annual growth rate. The population of B.C. has been projected at some 4.13 million by the year 2003. Annual population growth rate is projected to decline from about 2.7% in 1993 to 1.5% in 2003. This represents about a 2.5% annual growth rate for the first five years.[168]
Demographic characteristics that seem to most affect participation rates in outdoor recreation are age, income and education.[169],[170],[171],[172] Participation rates decline for most forms of outdoor recreation with increased age. The median age of the Canadian population is expected to rise from 33 years in 1991 to 41 years by 2011 and similar changes are expected for B.C. This suggests that participation rates for outdoor recreation may drop in the future.
Other trends, most notably increases in education and income, are expected to increase participation rates in outdoor recreation.[173] The proportion of B.C. adult population with some post-secondary education should rise from 46% in 1992 to 57% in 2003 and an increase in total per capita personal income is projected from 1993 to 2003.[174] These trends in education and income suggest a possible increase in participation rates for outdoor recreation.
Various studies have either reported or predicted changes in outdoor recreation participation rates. Based on a review of eight studies, Balmer predicted growth in per capita participation rates in B.C. for 34 activities and declines for three activities.[175] Overall, these findings indicate about a 0.5% average annual increase in participation rates by British Columbians for all outdoor recreation activities. Cordell and others also predicted a 0.5% average annual increase in participation rates by United States residents from 1987 to 2000.[176]
Supporting these predictions for moderate growth in annual participation rate are studies that have reported actual changes in participation rates in the past. A B.C. Parks study of recent trends in outdoor recreation participation in B.C. (1983-1991) reported changes for six activities.[177] A small increase in annual participation rates was noted for the two activities with highest participation rates (day hiking and camping trips), little change was noted for fishing and cross-country skiing, a fluctuating trend with little overall change was noted for downhill skiing and a slight decrease was noted for overnight backpacking. These results suggest a slight overall increase in participation rates for all outdoor recreation activities.
A slight increase in participation rates, however, does not necessarily entail more days of use. A recent B.C. Parks study on camping, for example, noted an overall decline in camper nights from 1980 to 1990 (despite the previously noted slight increases in participation rates).[178] A shift towards more, shorter, weekend camping trips appears to account for this. A longer-term U.S. study between 1960 and 1982 noted an increase in participation rates for six out of nine outdoor activities, again suggesting a slight overall increase.[179]
A study on wildlife between 1981 and 1991 noted an 11% increase in participation rates by Canadians for primary non-consumptive wildlife trips[180] or outings (from 19.4% of outings in 1981 to 21.6% in 1991) and a 14% decrease in participation rates for hunting activity (from 9.8% of outings to 8.4%).[181] The changes were more pronounced in B.C., with a 26% increase in participation rates for primary non-consumptive wildlife trips or outings (from 18.7% in 1981 to 23.5% in 1991) and a 30% decrease in participation rates for hunting activity (from 7.4% to 5.2%). Since participation rates are much higher for primary non-consumptive wildlife trips or outings than for hunting activity, this suggests a slight overall increase in participation rates for these two wildlife-oriented recreation activities.
However, a recent study of future outdoor recreation participation rates in B.C.’s Lower Mainland area projects a decrease in rates in 20 out of 36 activities.[182] An analysis of the report suggests a very slight overall decrease in participation rates of about 1% over 10 years (about a 0.1% annual decrease). Although there is no agreement in studies about how participation rates for outdoor recreation may change in the future, most reviewed studies suggest a slight increase. Therefore a slight overall annual increase of 0.5%, as noted in several studies is used for this analysis.[183]
In conclusion, an approximate 2.5% annual increase in population in B.C. over the next five years, coupled with a slight (0.5%) annual increase in participation rates for outdoor recreation, suggests about a 3% overall annual increase in outdoor recreation use in the province.
An analysis of the projections for the United States suggests a 1.5% overall increase in outdoor recreation use from 1987 to 2000. The difference between this and the suggested 3% annual increase for B.C. relates primarily to differences in the rate of population growth (B.C. 2.5%, U.S. 1%), as both areas project a 0.5% annual increase in participation rate.
