Direct income changed little during 1988-1992. In 1993, higher feeder cattle prices increased the producer value added and hence the value of Crown range. Prices have since moderated from the 1993 highs.
Recent studies of the Canadian and B.C. cattle industries have noted the importance of Crown forage to B.C. livestock producers.[139] Without access to Crown forage, B.C.’s feeder cattle industry would be much smaller, and feeder cattle production in the southern Interior would be minimal.
In 1988, the B.C. beef production sector provided 2207 person-years of direct employment and an additional 846 person-years of indirect and induced employment.[140] Current employment generated by the sector is similar to 1988 levels. Crown range also generates economic benefits through wildlife production. The Ministry of Environment Wildlife Branch estimates that the net economic value of wildlife and wildlife-related activity in 1989 totalled some $448 million in B.C. and that the wildlife sector generated 12 179 person-years of direct and indirect employment.[141] About half of this economic activity is associated with the ungulate species that use Crown range.
No comprehensive data are available on the economic benefits of range-based recreational activity and many of these benefits are captured in the previously mentioned estimates of the economic benefits of wildlife and wildlife-related activity (e.g., hunting, wildlife viewing). Additional non-monetary benefits of range-based recreation (e.g., non-commercial horseback riding) are likely to be substantial and contribute to the economic benefit of the range resource on the provincial economy.[142]
Many other important, but intangible, benefits are derived from the Crown forage resource.[143] Aesthetic, recreational, biodiversity and other values related to healthy, functioning ecosystems are not easily quantifiable in dollars or other concrete measures. Maintaining such values depends on managing ecosystems to support a diverse array of plant and animal species and a variety of ecosystems and ecosystem processes. The limited presentation of these aspects in this discussion of the Crown range resource reflects the incomplete understanding of such values and interactions and the need for additional research and more detailed analyses.
In 1993, at the grazing fee of $1.82 per animal unit month (AUM), potential consumption was estimated at many tens of thousands of AUMs higher than authorized or actual use. Actual use of Crown forage by beef cattle was estimated at 946 000 AUMs amd demand was estimated to have exceeded one million AUMs. Scarcity of forage occurred locally in all regions and was greatest in the Kamloops and Cariboo Forest Regions. After 1987, consumption increased as herd inventories were built up (Figure 7.38).
Crown areas with fully committed Crown forage are usually near ranch bases; areas with partially committed Crown forage are generally more distant.[144] Since the use of Crown forage varies with the profitability of ranching, use of Crown forage close to ranch bases is more stable than use of more distant Crown forage. In these areas of stability and high demand (near ranch bases), forage supply is known to be inadequate.
The demand for Crown forage by B.C.’s sheep producers is minor compared to the other components of demand. Nevertheless, it has grown in recent years as forest companies have used sheep for vegetation management on replanted clearcut areas. Regional sheep herd distribution in 1991 is shown in Figure 7.41.
Overall, the demand for Crown forage by producers of domestic livestock other than beef may have decreased somewhat in recent years. Current demand by owners of other domestic livestock (e.g., sheep, goats) and by the commercial horse recreation industry (e.g., guide outfitting), is thought to be in line with current licensed use, estimated to be about 36 000 AUMs.
Wildlife demand for Crown forage is a function of wildlife population levels, which vary with climatic conditions and wildlife harvest levels. While grazing is important in all seasons, the most critical periods of forage supply for wild ungulates are winter and spring. Wild ungulate population levels generally have been stable or increasing in recent years, suggesting an overall increase in the demand for Crown forage. In particular, increases have been noted in the Nelson and Kamloops Forest Regions. It is difficult to estimate overall wildlife demand on Crown ranges also used by domestic livestock, though some wildlife species use many of these areas year round.[145] Estimated regional ungulate animal unit distribution in 1991 is shown in Figure 7.42.
The use of alpine and remote areas for livestock grazing is relatively common. Such use, however, sometimes requires predator control — most commonly of wolves. Authorized predator control is carried out by conservation officers of the B.C. Ministry of Environment, Lands and Parks under strict guidelines and is considered to have negligible impacts on overall predator populations. The effect of unauthorized (illegal) control by others is not presently well-documented.
Another important recreational demand for Crown forage comes from trail-riding operations and ranchers who supply horse-oriented recreational opportunities. As noted previously, the current demand by other domestic livestock, plus the demand associated with the commercial horse recreation industry is thought to equal current licensed use, estimated to be about 36 000 AUMs.
The absolute level of demand for Crown forage by non-commercial recreationists is not known, since they do not hold grazing tenures and no data are collected on their use of Crown forage. The B.C. Outdoor Recreation Survey presented information on recreational horseback use in provincial forests by B.C. residents (Figure 7.43).[146] For this analysis, total use is thought to be about 50% of licensed horse use of Crown forage or about 14 000 AUMs annually.
Wildlife demand for Crown forage is much harder to separate into domestic and international components since many non-consumptive uses of wildlife have both components. Surveys of resident and non-resident interest in B.C. indicate that almost all demand for Crown forage by wildlife is derived domestically. The international component of wildlife demand, which depends on the willingness-to-pay for non-consumptive wildlife use (e.g., wildlife viewing) by international visitors, is estimated to be only a small fraction of the domestic component — possibly as little as one-tenth and probably no more than one-quarter.
Demand for Crown forage by livestock is reported in Figure 7.45. More than four-fifths of livestock demand was centred in the southern Interior regions (Cariboo, Kamloops and Nelson) and almost all of the remainder in the Prince George Forest Region.
Normally such a prolonged period of expansion would suggest that a near-term forecast be cautious. However, as U.S. cattle producers have only recently rebuilt herd inventories to 1986 levels and as the general economic recovery is expected to persist for at least a few more years, there may be room for additional growth in the B.C. herd.
Assuming that the supply of forage is adequate, current and expected market conditions suggest that the B.C. herd will grow at an average rate of 2% per year 1994-95, followed by 1.5% per year in 1996 and 1997, before declining by 2.0% during 1998.[148] Such growth would increase the B.C. herd to record levels, reaching 276 500 head in 1997, before dropping to 271 000 head in 1998. The projected 1997 peak would be 13.8% above the herd size documented by the last Census of Agriculture, 29.2% higher than the 1986 low-point and 14.3% higher than the previous peak achieved in 1982.[149] This record herd size will substantially increase demand for Crown forage.
Demand for Crown forage by domestic livestock other than beef cattle is not expected to change significantly over the next five years.
Wildlife ungulate populations have been stable or increasing slightly in recent years. Unless a severe winter occurs, Wildlife Branch staff foresee additional modest growth of wild ungulate populations, particularly in the Kamloops and Nelson Forest Regions. This will lead to growth in wildlife use of Crown range grazed by domestic livestock.
The average production of hay on private land in B.C. varies considerably from year to year (Figure 7.46). Regional and local hay production also vary. Livestock producers adjust to this situation by adjusting feed inventories (through purchases and sales of hay or grasses) and livestock inventories. This variation in hay production should be remembered when reading about the forage and grazing balance model discussed in Section 7.2.6.
The first scenario with few new constraints assumes no losses of Crown forage due to land claim settlements to the end of 1998, minimal losses due to the implementation of the Forest Practices Code (FPC), minimal impact of the Protected Areas Strategy (PAS) and minimal impact of recommendations by the Commission on Resources and Environment (CORE).
The second scenario with many new constraints assumes losses by 1998 to CORE recommendations and to restrictive treatment of grazing under the FPC. However, government policy states that livestock grazing will not be alienated due to the PAS, except in some circumstances. Grazing is considered to be an appropriate use for a protected area. Likewise, no range areas will be alienated under the FPC, although special management practices may apply.
In the Prince George and Prince Rupert Forest Regions, range productivity improvements and other opportunities could increase Crown forage supply by up to 10%. Northern beef producers also have opportunities to develop additional forage on private land. Range losses due to land claims could reduce Crown forage supply, but are not likely to occur within the current five-year planning horizon. Land claim settlements which may change the ownership of Crown range would not preclude its use for grazing by livestock.
The demand assumptions of the model, which are based on a continuation of the current charge for forage, are as follows:
Based on these assumptions, the model indicates a forage deficit in 1993 of some 210 000 tons or about 10% of total requirements. This deficit is somewhat higher than was estimated for 1991 and is probably due to increased herd size and decline in forage in all areas other than northern B.C.
The model projection of a 10% forage deficit was borne out by actual 1993 figures: a 222 000 ton forage deficit, based on net international exports of forage products from B.C. of 78 000 tons and the purchase of about 300 000 tons of hay from Alberta by B.C. livestock producers. The provincial grazing deficit for 1993 is estimated to have been over 275 000 AUMs or about 11% of total requirements. All regions are indicated to have a grazing deficit except for the Vancouver Forest Region, where summer feeding of cut forage is assumed to offset the expected deficit of grazing resources.
While these measures offer short-term solutions, they impose costs on producers. If herd inventories persist at or above 1993 levels, producers will develop more grazing on private land and seek more grazing land from the Crown. Presently, the Crown supplies about 40% of the beef industry’s grazing requirements. Applying this percentage to the estimated total grazing deficit indicates a potential to expand Crown grazing by 100 000 AUMs, based solely on existing livestock inventory (i.e., there will be an additional deficit of 100 000 AUMs). Most of this potential for expansion exists in the southern Interior, particularly the Cariboo and Nelson Forest Regions.
At the same time, the supply of Crown forage in the province is projected to decrease over the next five years unless steps are taken to increase the rate of development of additional forage. The overall decrease is expected to be the result of stable or modestly growing supply of Crown forage in the Prince George and Prince Rupert Forest Regions and declining supply of Crown forage in southern regions of B.C. Assuming no significant loss of Crown range due to land claim settlements, the overall decline in supply available to livestock is projected to be less than 10% by 1998 or less than about 100 000 AUMs.
These projections suggest that the current excess demand for Crown forage, which is met by hay imports or private grazing, is likely to grow. For 1997, the year in which herd growth is projected to peak, an overall grazing deficit of some 521 000 AUMs is projected. A significant deficit is indicated in every forest region except Vancouver. Deficits, expressed as a percentage of total regional beef cattle grazing requirements, are highest in the southern interior regions (28.2-29.8%) and lowest in the Prince George Forest Region (6.6%). Overall, the provincial grazing deficit represents 19.2% of requirements and is almost double the deficit indicated for 1993.
These projected grazing deficits are substantial and will undoubtedly constrain the herd growth to levels significantly lower than projected, particularly in the southern Interior, where the area of private range is expected to continue to slowly decline over the next five years.
If the anticipated cattle market conditions behind this projection materialize, a significant increase in the demand for Crown forage is likely. Such a situation would considerably exacerbate the shortfall that currently exists, unless steps are taken to increase Crown forage supply through range investment and development.
The Range Management Program has invested capital in rangeland development for many years, but has not evaluated range production costs recently. Moreover, production possibilities for Crown forage development in the various regions of the province have not been quantitatively assessed. An assessment of forage development potential and cost is required before investment opportunities can be discussed more fully.
