On completion of the Timber Supply Review in December 1995, up-to-date projections of timber supplies will be available for each of British Columbia’s TSAs and TFLs. Half of these analyses have already been completed and provide timely information on how current forest management practices affect timber availability. For the remaining TSAs, the most recent information (in some cases) is over 10 years old.
Assuming a continuation of current management practices, the long-term sustainable harvest level for the province from all TSAs and TFLs is estimated to be 50-60 million cubic metres per year. This harvest level will reflect the following conditions:
The transition from the current harvest level (71.6 million cubic metres per year ) to this level (50-60 million cubic metres per year ) would require initial corrections to account for changes in management priorities over the past 5-13 years and would then decline gradually over the next 50 years.
One way to mitigate or offset long-term declines in timber supply is to invest more in forest health, tree improvement, hardwood management and incremental silviculture, which includes fertilization. B.C.’s Forest Renewal Plan (FRP) is anticipated to invest $2 billion over the next five years in forest lands and the forest sector, through revenues from increases in stumpage rates. Investment in intensive forest management and renewal of the land base can contribute to increasing long-term provincial timber supply levels to 70-75 million cubic metres per year. FRP investment related to value-added manufacturing seeks to maintain or increase provincial employment (through more jobs per cubic metre of wood cut) and revenues over the long term.
In some timber supply areas of the province there are few options available to mitigate or offset short-term (over the next 40 years) declines in timber supply. Certain timber supply units are not suited to the kind of silviculture investments today that will reduce projected short-term timber deficits. Actions that could increase short-term supply in these timber supply units include improving utilization of timber presently harvested, increasing the timber harvesting land base by logging areas not currently considered available for harvesting (e.g., areas of currently uneconomical forest cover, such as steep slopes or non-sawlog timber types), or applying less stingent timber harvesting constraints (e.g., visual quality objectives and green-up requirements).
In other timber supply areas of B.C., commercial thinning and fertilization might be used to accelerate the rate at which timber becomes merchantable and so mitigate short-term timber supply declines. Commercial thinning can also increase the value of the stand by increasing tree sizes at final harvest. The ministry projects that in 10 years, up to 10% of the harvest volume from Crown land in B.C. will come from commercial thinnings.
Where forests are of an appropriate age and condition, fertilization can also be used to increase and accelerate the production of merchantable timber volume. Fertilizer can be used to enhance timber growth on commercially thinned areas, older plantations and juvenile spaced areas. Significant opportunities exist for an increased fertilizer program under FRP.
The Forest Renewal Plan will also allocate significant funds to update estimates of forest land productivity. Refinements to the estimates of second-growth forest productivity could have significant effects on estimates of both short- and long-term timber supply. Updated estimates of second-growth productivity in four timber supply areas indicate the potential for significant increases in the estimates of future timber volume and availability in these areas.
