Kamloops FFS Pilot

Introduction

Through an Expression of Interest process, the Kamloops Timber Supply Area (TSA) was selected as a pilot area to test the applicability and functionality of the Future Forest Strategy (FFS) concept and identity opportunities for improvement before moving the concept and framework into practice.   The intent of the Kamloops FFS is, first and foremost, to: understand planning synergies and conflicts, and resolve these on several spatial scales across a TSA; and ultimately provide reasonable management guidance that integrates overlapping objectives and seeks well-informed solutions to fit with stand and landscape structures and functions over time.

To effectively integrate management for multiple objectives over time it is important to have a vision of the mix of stand types and structures for various landscapes to reasonably fit with those objectives and the ecosystems present.  It requires best estimates of changing future ecological conditions, with a reasonable consideration of the uncertainty tied to those estimates.

Objectives

To articulate the vision of what the desired forest condition is to be towards ensuring / mitigating more resilience to ecological, economic and/or social issues and/or drivers such as climate change, and mountain pine beetle.

1. Clarify intent and overlap from the various plans and strategies for the Kamloops TSA and to assess management options based on the desired future condition;
2. Provide management options based on climate change scenarios;
3. Mitigate risks to environmental values to ensure objectives for timber and other values are not jeopardized;
4. Identify data gaps and uncertainties; and
5. Provide a template for managing multiple objectives in a changing environment.

Approach

The project is separated into two phases:

Phase 1: preliminary data organization and analysis

Phase 1 informs the choice of an area within the TSA which will act as a case study to develop an approach for integration of planning direction within the context of a changing climate.   This case study area will reflect a variety of overlapping management objectives and significant anticipated impacts from climate change.

Phase 2: develop the strategy

Phase 2 utilizes existing inventories, expert opinion and available data, tools and information emerging from the Future Forest Ecosystems Initiative to identify what if any ecological or management vulnerabilities emerge over time within the modified landscape.

Phase 2 will take the methodology developed in the case study area and apply it over the TSA.  The final report will present the results of the Kamloops FFS and provide a process to design management guidance that integrates overlapping objectives and seeks informed solutions to fit with stand and landscape structures and functions over time for ecosystems influenced by climate change.

• Expression of Interest – Kamloops Proposal
• Kamloops TSA FFS Pilot Workplan
• Kamloops FFS Work Group Terms of Reference

Kamloops Future Forest Strategy Final Report

There is a significant amount of detail in the Kamloops FFS Pilot Project report surrounding the sensitivities to, and management implications of climate change in the TSA, and for this reason the final report is available in two forms.  The main report has been structured to provide a general summary of the findings and recommendations in this pilot project, while the appendices provide detailed direction and analysis.  Each of the main report and the appendices are available as separate links below or, alternatively, the complete document can be downloaded in its entirety.

• Kamloops FFS Main Report
• Appendix 1 – Framework for a Future Forest Strategy
• Appendix 2 – General Timber Supply Area Sensitivities
• Appendix 3 – Specific Sensitivities and Adaptive Management Direction by Subzone Groupings
• Appendix 4 – Management Sensitivities by Value
• Appendix 5 – A Vision of the Future Forest in the Kamloops TSA
• Appendix 6 – Assessing TSA Vulnerabilities to Climate Change
• Kamloops FFS Final Report (complete report including the main document and all appendices)

In support of the Kamloops FFS project and report, a number of documents and presentations were created as background materials, and to aid in the development process for the Kamloops FFS. These additional reference materials form the Compendium of Supporting Documents

• A Summary of Current Management Regimes Relevant to the Future Forest Strategy for the Kamloops TSA
• Climate Modeling and Future Ecosystem Climate Mapping
• Ecological Narratives – summaries of possible future forest conditions based on the climate change scenarios

• Maps of Subzone Climate Envelopes – two models of possible future climate change were used to help envision the future forest.  The Hadley model (HadCM3) assumes that there will be minimal reductions in future greenhouse gas emissions (resulting in a greater change in climate) while the PCM model assumes that significant reductions in future carbon emissions will occur (resulting in a relatively lesser change in climate.)

  • HadCM3 in the year 2050
  • HadCM3 in the year 2080
  • PCM in the year 2050
  • PCM in the year 2080