The forest industry has historically been subject to market cycles. There is a growing concern at this point in the current cycle, however, that the longer term competitive position and financial viability of the industry may have been permanently impaired by increases in wood costs resulting from both higher timber prices (stumpage and royalties) and increased logging costs.
At the December 5, 1996 meeting of the Forest Sector Strategy Committee, and at a December 18, 1996 meeting with a number of deputy ministers, senior industry representatives presented a paper entitled "Industry on the Brink" which, among other things, presented estimates of profitability of the industry by sector through the first nine months of 1996.
The presentation argued that the industry is not making an adequate return on capital and that its financial viability is being crippled by:
- high stumpage; and
- lack of recognition of cost impacts on industry from the Forest Practices Code and other factors.
Reflecting their concern about the information presented, the government representatives indicated their intent to undertake a project to identify cost drivers that could help in determining solutions to the problems facing the industry. Industry representatives indicated their willingness to cooperate in this project and that their books would be open to those undertaking it.
The resulting terms of reference were designed to answer the following key questions:
The objective of the project is to provide a sound factual basis on which industry and government can discuss options for possible solutions to the problems facing the industry.
It should be noted that this study is only concerned with costs and the reasons why costs have increased. No attempt has been made to evaluate the benefits associated with forest practice changes, and the fact that certain provisions have been observed to cause costs to increase in no way implies that those provisions are (or are not) justified or effective.
The Terms of Reference related to the analysis of delivered wood costs part of this study stated: "The identification and quantification of cost drivers, including but not limited to, elements of the Forest Practices Code, is the primary objective of this part of the project." The evolution of the Code resulted in certain regulations, standards and guidelines which became key aspects of the Code being implemented in some areas of the province before the FPC Act was proclaimed on June 15, 1995. Because of this, our methodology was developed to provide a mechanism to differentiate "Code-related" from "non-Code-related" cost drivers (see Section II.B.3).
Phase I:Review of financial performance
The scope of this phase was limited to performing an overview analysis of certain financial information included within the "Industry on the Brink" presentation and putting the overall results in context.
Phase II:Analysis of increases in delivered wood costs (1992-1996)
The scope of this phase included:
- Collection of data on delivered wood costs in 1996 for selected Coastal and Interior logging operations;
- Comparison of 1996 delivered wood costs with 1992 costs for the same operations to identify the specific cost elements responsible for the change in delivered wood costs;
- Qualitative analysis of the cost drivers responsible for the change in delivered wood costs, based on a sub-sample of the selected Coastal and Interior logging operations.